A reader asks, why is the trend our friend?

Hi there Admin,

Thanks for sharing and being a light in this unprecedented times.

You said “The trend is your friend. Let inflation and time do the heavy lifting for asset prices and cash flows. Let abhorrent social and religious Marxist deficit spending do the heavy lifting.” If you have a leisure time, can you expand a bit more in a layman’s terms. As always thank you.

Dmitry

There’s no stopping this freight train. M2 growth has only accelerated since QE in 2008.

Look at how M2 has accelerated since late 2008, which coincided with the implementation of QE. It has almost tripled over that timespan and since quantitative easing was implemented, federal government spending levels with its concomitant increases in money supply and treasury securities has accelerated.

All deficit spending is eventually captured by the asset owners 

All of this extra money supply needs to find a home. It ends up parking itself on to the balance sheets of those who can capture this deficit spending. The wealthiest asset owners benefit the most. I look at the increasing level of US Treasury securities outstanding and can’t help but conclude how all of these securities will be used as collateral to buy up other assets.

Treasuries are considered the least risky and most liquid of assets and they seem to be produced at ever greater levels. All of these treasuries and the increase in M2 has had a profound effect on the asset markets. It has had a profound effect on the price of Bitcoin. It has had a profound effect on the price of gold and silver.

Most income generating assets have benefited tremendously not just in price levels, but also when we look at the amount of cash flow these underlying assets now generate. I think it’s become clear for most people that the published governments inflation data seriously under reports the true inflation, over the long term.

Long-term inflation data underreported

When we look at the published inflation data for each individual year, there may be an under reporting of perhaps one or two percentage points over what most people experience. That may not sound like a lot, but over 10 or 20 years, the difference can be huge. This is why when we look at inflation data regarding house rents, college tuition, or health care prices, they outpace the overall rates of published inflation numbers, because it’s much more difficult for the governments to hide the true inflation numbers in these subsectors.

Okay. So what does this mean? It means that investors in the income generating assets will tend to see their cash flows rise with the real inflation numbers and not what the government gives us. Landlords will continue to experience outsized gains in rent increases. Corporations will continue to experience outside increases in their profits.

Of course, those who are of the bottom 80% in balance sheet wealth don’t own enough assets or don’t own any and are unable to keep up with the true rates of monetary and price inflation. What an irony, since social deficit spending is supposed to target those in need.

Recklessness made possible by QE

And it was all made possible because of QE. Without QE, the United States government would have gone bankrupt. There’s just not enough organic demand for their treasury securities. All of this money and all of these treasury securities bid up everything in the asset markets.

I look at the price of gold and to be honest, it’s simply just playing catch up with the true rate of monetary inflation. Yes, there is a premium in the price of gold, because of what we’re seeing around the world, but it is essentially telling us the true rate of monetary inflation over the longer term.

What an open checkbook means

Okay, with the United States government essentially free to spend as much as it wants to spend, it is now going full bore social Marxist. It’s spending on things and ideas that were previously inconceivable because the government’s objectives are so costly that it previously would have bankrupted the federal government.

I look at the trillions of dollars that have been and are currently being spent on open borders, social Marxist ideologies and DEI, for instance. I look at the amount of money that the federal government is now spending on interest expenses alone, which is now at 1.5 trillion dollars annually and increasing. I look at the amount of money that Trump has devoted to military and War. I look at how Federal Reserve continues to suppress the yield curve, especially on the long end. I look at the massive consolidation of wealth since 2009. I look at all of these factors and many more and can only conclude that things can only go in One direction.

Social deficit spending in its manifold forms is ostensibly designed to help the most needy, but it’s this deficit spending that actually helps to ruin their lives over the longer term. The asset owners are the true beneficiaries from social deficit spending. And this is why the asset owners are the ones who promote social deficit spending programs in the first place.

Socialism works, it’s just that its true intention is never publicly discussed. Ironically, the publicly stated social spending beneficiaries are the ones who actually come up with the short straw. These people fall further behind over time as deficit spending just facilitates wealth and income inequalities.

QE and the expansion of asset price multiples

I suspect that without QE and in a relatively free Bond market like in pre-2008, the 30 year treasury would be yielding at least 8%. QE enables the federal government to borrow at much lower rates. And because the longer end of the yield curve is being suppressed, this allows for an expansion in the price multiples of assets.

Moreover, QE allows the federal government to spend as recklessly as it wishes. Thus, whatever the human species can conjure up as an important objective, the federal government can spend to try to make it a reality.

The trend without end

All of this spending and all of this money and treasury security creation is an absolute tsunami that you and I cannot stop. It is unprecedented in modern history and it makes Rome’s coin clipping scheme child’s play.

Unless we see bombs take out Washington DC or Apophis decimate the planet, the true owners of the Federal Reserve will keep the spigots on and allow the federal government to spend as wildly as it wishes.

Trump is the Marxist’s best friend

Now, we may say that Trump is rolling back all of this DEI crap, but I say he’s really not. He’s become such a terrible president in such a short time that he’s essentially become the Democrats best friend. When the far left takes over this country, it will be like a Bolshevik revolution. And the Federal Reserve will facilitate the whole process.

So, you and I cannot predict the future, but I’m sure that we are like-minded, since you do stop by this website. I have frequently in the past mentioned that I sort of think with two minds. On one hand, I make recommendations and predictions in the financial and asset markets based on what I see in front of me. On the other hand, I try to make predictions based on the written word about things we cannot see. The two often diverge. I figure that if what I think will come to pass actually does come to pass, whatever we’re invested in won’t really matter anyway.

Thus, the more filthy and Marxist the people and governments become in the West, the more spendthrift they become. If the Federal Reserve essentially provides the United States government with an open checkbook, it’s going to spend itself into Oblivion and will take down the population with it.

The cost of living crisis

So, why are we seeing this so-called cost of living crisis? It’s because the federal government has been under reporting the true price inflation data for so long that people’s real experiences on the street since the GFC bear no resemblance doing the government is saying.

So, unless there is some sort of washout event, asset prices will continue to climb, because their underlying cash flows will continue to climb higher than official price data would otherwise indicate. The population is now too filthy and degenerate and have now become too reliant on government largesse for it to end.

And the only way this to end will be through a nuclear take out of DC or wormwood. Thus, for the asset owners, the trend is our friend. And for those who don’t own the assets the trend is an absolute nightmare.

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37 thoughts on “A reader asks, why is the trend our friend?

  1. I know one way to stop the de-escalation, and that would be to bomb Washington DC.

    Pakistan holds talks with Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Egypt on Iran war
    The Hill

    The foreign ministers of Pakistan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Turkey will meet in Islamabad on Sunday, as the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran hits the 30-day mark.

    Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs wrote Saturday on the social platform X that Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan arrived in Islamabad “along with Foreign Ministers of Saudi Arabia and Egypt for consultations on efforts aimed at de-escalation in the region.”

    Fidan and Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar met Sunday and “reaffirmed strong Pakistan–Türkiye ties, discussed regional developments incl. Iran, and stressed dialogue, de-escalation, diplomacy & coordination for peace and stability,” the ministry wrote on X.

    Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty also arrived on Islambad on Saturday, with the ministry touting the “close and brotherly relations between Pakistan and Egypt and their continued coordination on regional and international issues.”

    Abdelatty arrived at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on Sunday for a meeting with Dar on “regional developments and matters of mutual interest,” the foreign ministry wrote on X.

    Egypt’s state information service wrote Saturday that Abdelatty will take part in a “quadrilateral ministerial meeting to discuss escalating military tensions in the region.”

    “Discussions are expected to focus on recent developments related to regional military escalation and ongoing diplomatic efforts to contain tensions and promote de-escalation,” the Egyptian government added. “The talks come amid heightened concerns about regional stability, with participating countries seeking to coordinate their stances and support political solutions to emerging crises.”

    Dar also met Sunday with Saudi Arabian Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan al Saud for “in-depth discussions on evolving regional developments, emphasizing the importance of dialogue, de-escalation, and coordinated efforts for peace and stability in the region, while reaffirming their commitment to further strengthening Pakistan-Saudi Arabia ties,” the Pakistani foreign ministry wrote on X.

    The convening of the four foreign ministers comes as the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran continues, with negotiations between the Trump administration and officials in Tehran so far yet to end hostilities. Pakistani officials have acted as mediators between the two sides.

    One major downstream effect of the conflict has been Iran limiting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a move that has increased oil prices and rattled markets globally.

    On Saturday, Dar wrote on X that the Iranian government agreed to allow 20 more ships under the Pakistani flag to pass through the strait, with two ships to cross daily. Shortly after that announcement, the Pakistani foreign ministry wrote on X that he and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi held a phone call, during which Dar “emphasized the need for de-escalation, stressing that dialogue and diplomacy remain the only viable path for lasting peace.

    “This is a welcome and constructive gesture by Iran and deserves appreciation. It is a harbinger of peace and will help usher stability in the region,” Dar wrote of the Iranian government allowing Pakistani ships through the Strait of Hormuz. “This positive announcement marks a meaningful step toward peace and will strengthen our collective efforts in that direction.

    “Dialogue, diplomacy, and such confidence-building measures are the only way forward.”

    Dar then tagged Vice President Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Araghchi and U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff.

    President Trump said earlier this week that Vance, Rubio, Witkoff and Jared Kushner, his son-in-law, are involved in negotiations with Iranian officials on ending the war.

    1. All those covid injections have gotten a lot of people sick and when the war comes to the West, millions will die from the hardships.

      One thing will save the people, take a subdermal implant to show allegiance. Stomp out racism wherever it appears. Christians caused World War 3 and we need to wipe away the last vestiges of the written word. Just go along to get along.

  2. If the Iran war becomes more protracted and spreads, it could be a catalyst for a global economic depression, or worse.

    The continual upward pressure on sovereign bond yields across the globe could be what tips it over.

    Inflation was beginning to fade, but this manufactured crisis, whose outcome is very real, could really be what the establishment needs to bring in the Great Reset.

    The upshot about being older is that time moves much more quickly now for me.

    It’s good being an XOM shareholder.

    Keep an eye on the force majeure for the second half of next year and anytime afterwards.

    1. Typically bonds are flight to safety products. Do you think that is changing? Is everyone staying in cash?

      I don’t have anything specific to point to, but I am getting a bad feeling about what is coming next week in Iran. The quagmire seems possible and Trump is very arrogant. That will play nicely into the sand box people’s agenda.

      1. IPI a fertilizer stock did great this week. I sold so it will probably go up. I think any wartime stock should still do good. Stocks that pertain to oil, ammo/guns, food, water, etc.. If anyone remembers what went up back in 2003 when the Iraq war started?

        1. Yes. Good points. It is important that the company does not actually have a supply issue because of the supply shock. I think of domestic energy producers, for instance. They are cleaning up. Same with fertilizer companies. Make certain they aren’t impacted by the circumstances, like war. They can produce for the same costs and take the higher revenue.

          1. The edomites invented the debt system. Matthew 21- 12-13 And Jesus went into the temple of God, and cast out all them that sold and bought in the temple, and overthrew the tables of the moneychangers, and the seats of them that sold doves,
            And said unto them, It is written, My house shall be called the house of prayer; but ye have made it a den of thieves.
            Money changer is another way to say Banker!

            1. But I don’t understand. Today’s Christian says Jesus is all about love. God loves everybody. It’s All about love.

              It reminds me of that Beatles song written by John Lennon. All You Need Is Love. I think of his other song, Imagine. All we need is infinite love.

              ✡️✡️✡️🤣🤣🤣🌚🌚🌚💩💩💩

              1. The song Imagine, pure commie Crap! The Beatles were fully engaged in freemasonic dark enlightenment. Just ask Aleister Crowley!

                I admit, I was a big Beatles fan in my youth.

      2. Steve you may be onto something about next week. Easter is April 5 which is the weekend after next. Passover starts next Tuesday then there is Good Friday next Friday. It is very interesting that Trump announced delaying attacks on Iran’s energy infrastructure for ten days yesterday. Count ten days forward from yesterday and that takes us to Easter weekend. I think it is very possible that hell will break loose after Easter weekend.

        Then again Trump can pull another TACO and the debunkers will say the attacks on Iran were not real and all this is a hoax. This may look like a hoax until foreign troops come to our doorstep. I am taking this all day by day.

        1. Iran has an army of about 700,000 men and the fighting is on their turf. Nobody wins a war with air power only. Sending 10,000 troops could easily end up tens of thousands like the Iraq war. Even if Trump claims victory and leaves, which I highly doubt, Iran has learned it can control the Strait and destroy the world economy. Iran wants revenge!

          The only wild card I see is if the technology used against Venezuela works with the same effect.

    2. Ha ha yeah I bought XOM after you recommended it in the 30s after the vid crash. Made a tidy sum wish I never sold it in the 50s.

    3. Going back to this post, If the Iran war becomes more protracted and spreads, it could be a catalyst for a global economic depression, or worse.

      This statement needs to soak in. This war could cause a liquidity and hyper inflation scenario.

      Revelation 6: 5-6 And when he had opened the third seal, I heard the third beast say, Come and see. And I beheld, and lo a black horse; and he that sat on him had a pair of balances in his hand.

      And I heard a voice in the midst of the four beasts say, A measure of wheat for a penny, and three measures of barley for a penny; and see thou hurt not the oil and the wine.

      Fertilizer, liquid gas, oil, diesel etc may sky rocket and force the great reset to commence!

      1. A lot of my younger readers don’t remember pastor Lindsey Williams, but he was an insider with the executives in charge of building out and maintaining the Alaska pipeline back in the seventies.

        I recall someone telling me during one of those prophecy conferences I attended that Lindsey Williams asked him if he was traveling East and if he was a traveling man. It’s most likely that Lindsey Williams was fishing to see if the guy was a mason. No proof, but I always kept that in the back of my mind.

        Anyway, Lindsey Williams for decades said that as World War 3 got a closer, the United States would become the largest energy producer in the world. I recall him saying this back in 2005 in one of these conferences. We thought he was insane. He said it’s going to happen. Look what’s happened since the GFC. American oil production has tripled. It is now by far, the largest producer in the world.

        What this is indicating to me is that the Anglo American establishment plans on eventually winning World War 3. They have planned this out many decades in the past and leave nothing to chance

        That is, except the emergence and appearing of Father Yahweh. Or perhaps, they plan on that as well. I’m sure they know a lot more than today’s Christian.

        1. Stone, here is an excerpt by Patrick Wood referencing a plan long in the making regarding the Strait, etc. The choke point can’t be held by Iran!
          India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor — IMEC — is being called one of the largest and most ambitious infrastructure projects in modern history. Trump called it [1] “one of the greatest trade routes in all of history.”

          IMEC is not just a trade route. It is a control corridor — a fully integrated system of rails, roads, shipping lanes, ports, fiber optic cables, energy pipelines, and data centers stretching from India to Europe. Whoever controls the architecture of that system controls the flow of goods, energy, data, and money across three continents. That is precisely why Technocrats want it, and precisely why you should understand what it is and who is building it.

          IMEC is the commercial payoff of a decade of deliberate geopolitical engineering — engineering that runs directly through Jared Kushner, the Abraham Accords, the war with Iran, and the technocratic reconstruction of Gaza. Connect the dots and the picture is unmistakable.

              1. Very few people come to this website. We’re speaking the truth and I’m telling the people how everything will unfold. I’m telling everyone who is who and I’m properly identifying people’s on this planet today. Christians don’t want to listen. I don’t care as they are supposed to be stupid.

            1. More than 3,500 U.S. troops, including the USS Tripoli with about 2,500 Marines, arrived in the Middle East, officials announced Saturday, as strikes in the Iran war intensified. The U.S. Central Command said in a social media post that the USS Tripoli, which serves as the flagship for the Tripoli Amphibious Ready Group / 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit, arrived in its area of responsibility. Central Command said that in addition to the Marines, the Tripoli also brings transport and strike fighter aircraft, as well as amphibious assault assets to the region. The USS Boxer and two other ships, along with another Marine Expeditionary Unit, have also been ordered to the region from San Diego.

  3. Breaking News: Russia’s Baltic Ports Burning Again as Ukraine Drone Campaign Enters Third Day

    Russia’s Baltic Ports Burning Again as Ukraine Drone Campaign Enters Third Day
    By Charles Kennedy – Mar 27, 2026, 9:30 AM CDT

    Oilprice.com; Russia’s vital oil export loading ports on the Baltic Sea appeared to be on fire again early on Friday, as Moscow is not getting reprieve from Ukrainian drone attacks this week that aim to reduce its oil export capabilities and the benefits Russia is reaping from the soaring oil prices and its now-unsanctioned crude.

    The ports of Primorsk and Ust-Luga were on fire early on Friday, Bloomberg reports, based on tracking NASA satellite images of the area that show the fires had likely started 3-12 hours before they were detected by NASA’s Fire Information for Resource Management System.

    Alexander Drozdenko, the governor of the Russian region of Leningrad, where the ports are located, posted on Telegram that Russia had destroyed 36 drones during the night, and the warning of air raid had been lifted. Preliminary information points to no people injured, Drozdenko said.

    Ukraine has intensified attacks on Russia’s Baltic Sea ports this week, crippling loading operations and forcing suspension of activities.

    In the Monday attack, drone attacks triggered fires at fuel storage tanks in Primorsk while neighboring Ust-Luga also suspended operations amid the barrage before partially resuming loadings.

    Then an attack on Wednesday at Ust-Luga resulted in a major fire, suspending operations.

    Primorsk is crucial for Russia’s exports as it ships the Russian flagship Urals crude and low-sulfur diesel to international markets, including volumes linked to the so-called “shadow fleet” used to bypass Western sanctions. Industry data indicates the port has capacity of about 1 million barrels per day (bpd).

    The drone attacks have now hit Russia’s oil loadings for exports, with Reuters calculations suggesting that as much as 40% of Russia’s oil export capacity is currently offline, factoring in port outages, pipeline issues, and tanker-related disruptions.

    The disruption means Russia cannot take full advantage of the spike in oil prices and its now unsanctioned oil that is wanted again in its key market India. It also means that supply of Russian oil is disrupted at a time of the biggest oil supply disruption occurring with the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz in the Middle East.

    1. I’m sorry, June 30th 2027 23:59 ends the current timeline.

      If any of my readers are interested in learning what happens subsequent to this deadline, I refer you to Ezekiel 38 and 39. This enumerates World War III.

      1. And of note, Persia is among the list of attackers; thus they must survive in some form till the time of the end. (Note to Trump)

        1. Just a thought; how long will it be till “something” happens in the USA. Whether faked, or real, blame Islam!

          1. It could be later on this afternoon or it could be 2H 2027.

            I suspect the Communists here in the states will begin to show their true colors after this November’s election. We could see a lot of civil unrest.

            While Manasseh, the land of unwalled villages, has its hands full with internal unrest as well as fighting wars around the world, an evil thought will come into the minds of its enemies. Manasseh’s well known enemies would love to have the 15 million barrels of oil a day. They love the natural resources. They’d love to come and take a spoil and take a prey.

            1. US signals to allies no ground invasion coming, with thousands of troops still en route:
              In other words, get ready for the ground war?

        2. That’s absolutely correct. We do see the sides lining up. All of the chess pieces are in place. I’m still trying to figure out how Turkey gets involved with the Japheth Confederacy.

          1. Agreed. I know most of the Islamic world is Sunni Islam and that includes the majority of Turkey. There an anomaly because their a member of NATO, for now.

  4. Reuters Exclusive: Trump’s signature to appear on US currency, Treasury says, ending 165-year tradition

    WASHINGTON, March 26 (Reuters) – U.S. paper currency will bear President Donald Trump’s signature to mark the 250th anniversary of U.S. independence, the ​Treasury Department said on Thursday, a first for a sitting president, while ‌deleting the Treasurer of the United States’ signature from U.S. money for the first time in 165 years.

    The Treasury said in a statement to Reuters that the first $100 bills with Trump’s signature and ​that of U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will be printed in June, followed ​by other bills in subsequent months.

    The Reuters Iran Briefing newsletter keeps you informed with the latest developments and analysis of the Iran war. Sign up here.
    The Treasury’s Bureau of Engraving and ⁠Printing is currently still producing notes bearing the signatures of former President Joe Biden’s ​Treasury secretary, Janet Yellen, and Treasurer Lynn Malerba.

    Malerba will be the last of an ​unbroken line of Treasurers whose signatures had appeared on U.S. federal currency since 1861, when it was first issued by the U.S. government.

    The signature change is the latest effort by the Trump administration ​and its allies to put the president’s name on buildings, institutions, government programs, battleships and ​coins. The design of a commemorative gold coin with Trump’s image was approved by a federal arts ‌panel ⁠whose members he appointed.

    Bessent said in a statement that the move was appropriate for the U.S. 250th anniversary, given strong U.S. economic growth, financial stability and “lasting dollar dominance” during Trump’s second term.

    “There is no more powerful way to recognize the historic achievements of ​our great country and ​President Donald J. ⁠Trump than U.S. dollar bills bearing his name, and it is only appropriate that this historic currency be issued at the Semiquincentennial,” ​Bessent said.

    An effort for a circulating $1 Trump coin was set ​back by ⁠laws prohibiting the depiction of living individuals on U.S. coins.

    A statute governing the printing of Federal Reserve notes gives the Treasury broad discretion to change designs to guard against counterfeiting. ⁠The law ​requires keeping certain elements, including the words “In God ​We Trust,” and only allows portraits of deceased individuals.

    The overall designs of bills will not change, except for ​Trump’s signature replacing the Treasurer’s, Treasury officials said.

      1. 30 year trading with a 4.998% yield. Should be 6-7% soon. Trump installed as president to blow up economy. A sex addicted and bloated Judas.

  5. Predictive programming! Sounds a little like the Bill Gates project to dim the Sun to prevent warming. Play on words, they want to “dim” the sun!

  6. Project Hail Mary

    Evidently, this is a well-reviewed new movie.

    Here’s the Google synopsis;

    Project Hail Mary is a 2026 science fiction film directed by Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, starring Ryan Gosling as Ryland Grace, a lone astronaut on a mission to save Earth from a sun-dimming phenomenon.

    Okay. So the protagonist seems to need to save the Earth from chemtrails? ✡️✡️✡️🤔🤔🤔

    Honestly, you and I can’t make this crap up. They tell us right in the movies what they do.

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