If America is in the midst of a trade war, the question we have to ask is: Are we tired of winning yet?
President “Donald Trump reaps $50 bn tariff haul as world ‘chickens out,’” reads the Financial Times headline.
“Only China and Canada have retaliated against US president’s tariff war,” its subhead adds.
“In the Trump-dominated global economy, the US gets plenty but gives nothing in return,” reads a rueful post on X from Axios — another publication with an upmarket readership — promoting an article titled, “Trump trade deals prove access to the US still matters above all else.”
Populist publications have a different take on Trump’s spate of trade victories.
“Trump’s trade deal bloc — let’s call it The Free World — now encompasses 57% of global GDP . . . 40% of total global trade in goods,” and “18% of the world’s population,” according to Breitbart’s John Carney.
The president has only been in office six months, and his tariffs haven’t even been in place that long, but already the results are undeniable.
At a time when there otherwise seems to be no end to federal deficits, Trump’s trade policy put the federal government in the black for the month of June, with a $27 billion surplus — and, as it happens, about $27 billion in tariff revenue.
It’s one thing that Trump so often surprises political opponents who underestimate him at election time and can’t understand the root of his appeal.
What’s more remarkable is Trump seems to defy the very laws of economics — or rather, the law as laid down by economists.
Other social sciences have lately lost credibility thanks to a “republication crisis” that shows how the results reported in leading journals of psychology and other fields all too often fail to be repeated when experiments are conducted anew and data are re-examined.
Will the economics profession — whose mainstream is fervently in favor of free trade and is convinced tariffs are madness — face a similar reckoning for getting this test wrong?
Trump can do things the economists say can’t be done because he approaches trade the way he conducts his real-estate business: It’s a negotiation, and leverage is what counts.
Precisely because the United States has such an enormous trade deficit with the rest of the world — amounting to more than $918 billion in 2024 — other nations depend on access to our market as an outlet for their goods.
The size and wealth of the American consumer base is unmatchable, and countries that get cut off from it can’t easily make up the difference by selling more goods and services somewhere else.
Whole industries in Europe and Asia would collapse without access to the American consumer.
Trump is willing to give them access — for a price.
Instead of using punitive tariffs to exclude foreign goods altogether, Trump is willing to strike a deal with anyone to allow goods to be sold in America at a price that makes the trade worthwhile for Americans and foreign companies alike.
The hitch: The deal must be on terms favorable for American workers and industry.
The president’s arrangement with the European Union levies a 15% tariff on most EU goods — but that’s peanuts compared to the 30% Trump was threatening if Europe didn’t cooperate.
The deal calls for new European investments of $600 billion in America, as well as for EU members to buy more energy and military equipment from us.
The 15% tariff is higher than what European producers were paying before Trump returned to the White House — high enough that American producers will get some protective advantage, but not so high that foreign companies won’t be able to compete.
That’s crucial because competition is what keeps prices down for American consumers.
Foreign firms can’t easily “pass on” a tax on their goods — which is what a tariff is — to the Americans who buy their products when those same Americans can choose from domestic producers instead.
The modest protection a 15% tariff affords gives more investors at home a reason to put their capital into American companies — which is good for our workforce and consumers alike.
It means more jobs and more goods; more money in Americans’ pockets and more stock on the shelves, which keeps prices down.
There’s risk in all this, but the upside opportunity is much greater, as entrepreneurs here and abroad recognize.
For the Europeans, it’s a no-brainer: The American market is so rife with profit possibilities that a 15% access fee is a very modest cost of doing business.
American businesses should recognize their opportunity as well — they’re native to a market the entire world is desperate to be in, and they should use that advantage to the fullest, investing at home and making the sales that foreign firms are so eager to make here.
In this trade war, all Americans are winning — except, perhaps, the overeducated prisoners of the Ivory Tower.
Daniel McCarthy is the editor of Modern Age: A Conservative Review and editor-at-large of The American Conservative.
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I am wondering if Trump’s tariffs will hold up in Federal Court.
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/31/trump-trade-tariffs-lawsuit-hearing.html
If the court shoots down these tariffs it will be a monkey wrench. Equities and precious metals will probably go up however, but it will kill the government revenue raising and raise the deficits.
Good luck getting congress to agree on tariffs. Too many special interest importers will lobby against it in congress.
How convenient https://news.cuanschutz.edu/news-stories/respiratory-viruses-can-wake-up-breast-cancer-cells-in-lungs
More covid vaccine limited Hangout. It’s always circular logic with vaccines. They never use control studies with unvaccinated cohorts or those with placebos.
Since we’re not allowed to question the vaccines and the damage they cause, it always has to be something else. The blind leading the blind.
Another convenient and false story to promote the Covid Clot shot. Never mind the reality that the Covid shots bring on respiratory diseases and also bring on cancer.
Price data come in largely as expected, but upward revisions put the year over year data a tad higher. Overall, bullish numbers and data that support a hawkish monetary policy.
Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Jun)
Act: 2.8% Cons: 2.7% Prev: 2.8%
Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Jun)
Act: 0.3% Cons: 0.3% Prev: 0.2%
PCE Price index (YoY) (Jun)
Act: 2.6% Cons: 2.5% Prev: 2.4%
PCE price index (MoM) (Jun)
Act: 0.3% Cons: 0.3% Prev: 0.2%
Personal Income (MoM) (Jun)
Act: 0.3% Cons: 0.2% Prev: -0.4%
Personal Spending (MoM) (Jun)
Act: 0.3% Cons: 0.4% Prev: 0.0%
Real Personal Consumption (MoM) (Jun)
Act: 0.1% Cons: Prev: -0.2%
Employment Benefits (QoQ) (Q2)
Act: 0.70% Cons: Prev: 1.20%
Employment Cost Index (QoQ) (Q2)
Act: 0.9% Cons: 0.8% Prev: 0.9%
Employment Wages (QoQ) (Q2)
Act: 1.00% Cons: Prev: 0.80%
Initial Jobless Claims
Act: 218K Cons: 222K Prev: 217K
Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.
Act: 221.00K Cons: Prev: 224.50K
Continuing Jobless Claims
Act: 1,946K Cons: 1,960K Prev: 1,946K
I think Powell intends to counteract the effects of the tariffs and therefore counteract Trump’s policies by holding up interest rates and making the USD more expensive relative to other currencies. A higher value USD makes imports cheaper as what happened in the 80s. Effectively, Powell is trying to make imports cheaper than otherwise the case.
What the Trump administration needs to do is work around the Federal Reserve by buying up US Treasuries in the open market and therefore lowering interest rates. The US Treasury can also buy up foreign currencies to drive down the USD and make imports more expensive. If you can’t remove the golden calf (Federal Reserve Bank) then work around it.
Powell is clearly playing against Trump when he lowered interest rates right before the election and not doing so after the election.
I have to agree with you on that. It doesn’t matter what Powell says, I’m just looking at what he’s doing.
He seems to be intent on keeping interest rates elevated, for reasons only he or his handlers know, and he comes up with excuses to justify it. It’s like he’s putting the cart in front of the horse. Kind of like what the Democrats do.
I can’t think of a worse Treasury Secretary in the history of the United States government than Janet Yellen. She insisted on financing all that debt on the short end of the curve and kept parroting how all that inflation was transitory.
At some point I have to conclude that it was intentional all along.
Keep an eye on the countdown clock on the front page. Trump is pushing to expand domestic copper production. Absolutely, a good thing. Copper futures took a big dump on the news.
____________
Trump unveils 50 percent tariffs on certain copper products
The Hill
The Trump administration on Wednesday announced anticipated tariffs on copper, levying different duties on finished products versus refined copper.
The White House in February announced an investigation into copper to lay the groundwork for potential tariffs on the metal.
As a result of that process, the administration Wednesday announced it would impose a 50 percent tariff on “all imports of semi-finished copper products and intensive copper derivative products.” That will go into effect Aug. 1.
The administration also announced a phased tariff on refined copper. The tariffs will begin in 2027 at 15 percent and increase to 30 percent in 2028.
The White House cited findings that the United States’ dependency on foreign copper imports was a “national security vulnerability” that could lead to supply chain disruptions and economic instability.
Copper prices declined on news of the new tariff plans.
The Trump administration has targeted various sectors with tariffs, with the president arguing that imposing duties on foreign imports will lead to greater production domestically.
The president had previously announced tariffs on steel and aluminum imports and has threatened tariffs on pharmaceuticals. He has also imposed a blanket tariff on all imports of 10 percent, with higher rates for certain countries.
The only thing keeping house prices from resuming their increases are high overnight rates, and the Fed knows it.
The Fed needs to cut rates. Now.
So much for the bad news this afternoon from the Fed. Microsoft is now a $4 trillion company.
Microsoft Fiscal Q4 Earnings, Revenue Rise; Shares up After-Hours
07/30/25 4:11 PM
04:11 PM EDT, 07/30/2025 (MT Newswires) — Microsoft (MSFT) reported fiscal Q4 earnings late Wednesday of $3.65 per diluted share, up from $2.95 a year earlier.
Analysts polled by FactSet expected $3.38.
Revenue for the quarter ended June 30 was $76.44 billion, up from $64.73 billion a year earlier.
Analysts surveyed by FactSet expected $73.86 billion.
Shares of the company were up 6.3% during after-hours activity.
Price: 545.71, Change: +32.47, Percent Change: +6.33
Facebook’s parent rocking in aftermarket. All those people in the alternative media locked into their Facebook echo chambers create unprecedented value in META.
Meta Q2 EPS, Revenue Increase
07/30/25 4:12 PM
04:12 PM EDT, 07/30/2025 (MT Newswires) — Meta Platforms (META) reported Q2 earnings Wednesday of $7.14 per diluted share, up from $5.16 a year earlier.
Analysts polled by FactSet expected $5.88.
Revenue for the quarter ended June 30 was $47.52 billion, up from $39.07 billion a year earlier.
Analysts surveyed by FactSet expected $44.81 billion.
The company expects Q3 revenue between $47.5 billion and $50.5 billion.
Analysts polled by FactSet expect $46.24 billion.
Meta shares were rising past 9% in recent after-hours activity.
2Q GDP growth comes in very close to the Atlanta Fed GDP Now estimate.
Core PCE Prices (Q2)
Act: 2.50% Cons: 2.40% Prev: 3.50%
GDP (QoQ) (Q2)
Act: 3.0% Cons: 2.5% Prev: -0.5%
GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q2)
Act: 2.0% Cons: 2.2% Prev: 3.8%
GDP Sales (Q2)
Act: 6.3% Prev: -3.1%
PCE Prices (Q2)
Act: 2.1% Prev: 3.7%
Real Consumer Spending (Q2)
Act: 1.4% Prev: 0.5%
Being a millionaire in the US isn’t what is used to be: ‘It’s the new mass-affluent middleweight class’
For a long time, becoming a millionaire was synonymous with being truly rich — no financial worries, no limitations. It meant a life of luxury and excess and if that idea was ever truly accurate, it isn’t anymore, according to financial analysts.
There are more millionaires now in the U.S. than ever before — 23,931,000 according to USB Global Wealth Report — many of whom are everyday Americans, not just celebrities, superstar athletes, and CEOs. But that doesn’t mean they’re living lives free of financial worry or threat of ruin.
“Millionaire used to sound like Rich Uncle Pennybags in a top hat,” Michael Ashley Schulman, the chief investment officer at Running Point Capital Advisors told the Associated Press. “It’s no longer a backstage pass to palatial estates and caviar bumps. It’s the new mass-affluent middleweight class, financially secure but two zeros short of private-jet territory.”
Around a tenth of the U.S. population are millionaires — in part due to forces such as inflation, rising home values, and more average investors participating in the stock market — but some of those same forces have made hitting the million dollar mark less meaningful.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-millionaires-middleweight-class-b2798400.html
Trump has accomplished a lot of great things in such a short amount of time. I just hope he doesn’t blow it by destroying the Republican party. He is ruining the Republican party by threatening to primary NC Senator Tillis who ultimately is stepping down allowing an opening for a demonrat. He is blowing it with the Epstein files by suddenly backing down on releasing the files. The Democrats are picking up on the issue even though they never cared about it before.
It will suck when the Democrats get back control.
The last four years of Democrats was a disaster with increased government bullying by the IRS with increased audits, increased FBI bullying of those who don’t agree with the DEI and LGBQT .
Democrats believe in big Government and big overreaching authority as well as taxing everybody so they don’t want to work.
Don’t forget the Democrats vaccine mandates.
I fear the authorities knocking on my door.
I really don’t want a bloody fight, but it may happen if the Democrats come back and take control. There will be no choice as I don’t want to get hauled off to some concentration camp.
While I am generally nonpartisan and non political, but I have a supreme hatred of the Democrats for their tyrannical, self righteous, holier than thou approach. They totally disregard individuality. They use deceptive means to get elected such pretending to be moderate and even conservative and promising tax cuts and as soon as they get into office those same liars toe the leftist line.
If the Democrats take back control then I will pray for the USA and its heavy handed government to collapse into oblivion. I will pray for anarchy and civil war in the USA if the Democrats take back control. Anarchy and civil war is much better than a repressive tyrannical government that the Democrats want. Anarchy and civil war
at least allow us freedom to defend ourselves and gives us that chance. More likely the Democrats will bring anarchy and civil war not by intention but because some of us want liberty. I see a real mess ahead if Trump blows it.
Though I agree with a lot of Trump’s trade policies, he’s turned politics into kayfabe. He’s embarrassed the Democrats so badly that he’s turned them into a degenerate Marxist force. Though he’s exposed them for the people they really are, they will be relentless when they get back in power.
True that Trump has embarrassed the Democrats and exposed them for who they are. Many polls show a majority of people have very low opinions of the Democrats.
However, polls don’t matter. It’s who counts the votes that matter. If Antifa, Democrats, and or Communists end up counting the votes like they did in 2020 and 2022 then the Democrats will take control despite a majority of legitimate voters voting against the Democrats.
It is also true that if the Democrats get back in control they will be relentlessly tyrannical in applying their power. Expect more aggressive tax collection and more onerous tax laws. Expect a weaponized FBI and ATF going after those of different political views and gun owners. There will be loosened up criminal laws so crime will run rampant. Education will be all about political agendas and not the 3 Rs. It will all be over.
Move to a red area
Definitely. Hope and pray that the Liberals don’t follow to the new red area.
I am all for restricting entry of new people into places based on their past history. The Liberals have moved into and ruined a lot of red areas like New Hampshire, North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona.
Trade balance looking good…. Inventories higher than expected. Both numbers help GDP estimates. House price data a little weaker…
Goods Trade Balance (Jun)
Act: -85.99B Cons: -98.30B Prev: -96.59B
Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Jun)
Act: 0.0% Cons: Prev: 0.1%
Wholesale Inventories (MoM) (Jun)
Act: 0.2% Cons: -0.1% Prev: -0.3%
Redbook (YoY)
Act: 4.9% Cons: Prev: 5.1%
FHFA House Price Index (YoY) (May)
Act: 2.8% Cons: Prev: 3.2%
FHFA House Price Index (MoM) (May)
Act: -0.2% Cons: -0.1% Prev: -0.3%
FHFA House Price Index (May)
Act: 434.4 Cons: Prev: 435.1
S&P/CS HPI Composite – 20 s.a. (MoM) (May)
Act: -0.3% Cons: Prev: -0.3%
S&P/CS HPI Composite – 20 n.s.a. (MoM) (May)
Act: 0.4% Cons: Prev: 0.8%
S&P/CS HPI Composite – 20 n.s.a. (YoY) (May)
Act: 2.8% Cons: 2.9% Prev: 3.4%
CB Consumer Confidence (Jul)
Act: 97.2 Cons: 95.9 Prev: 95.2
JOLTS Job Openings (Jun)
Act: 7.437M Cons: 7.510M Prev: 7.712M
Dallas Fed Services Revenues (Jul)
Act: 6.3 Cons: Prev: -4.1
As expected, the latest GDP estimate takes a sharp up tick. The data that came out earlier this morning definitely helped economic growth estimates.
Russia’s economy is now so militarized, it may keep expanding its army even after the Ukraine war
•Russia’s military industry is likely to expand even after the Ukraine war ends, wrote a think tank.
•Military spending is driving Russia’s economy, sustaining it despite Western sanctions.
•Russia’s militarized economy is supporting political and economic stakeholders, deterring cutbacks.
‘Russia could be preparing for some kind of future confrontation with NATO’ – The CSIS report comes amid renewed scrutiny of Russia’s economy.
https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-military-defense-spending-growing-after-ukraine-war-csis-2025-7
Soaring Czech Home Prices Spell End to Easing, Policymaker Says
(Bloomberg) — Czech interest-rate cuts are “almost certainly” over for now as the central bank tackles inflation risks from soaring property prices, consumer spending and an improving economic outlook, a senior policymaker said.
After a rapid pace of monetary easing last year, rate setters at the Czech National Bank have applied a stop-and-go approach since December. Market bets are predicting a hold on the benchmark rate at 3.5% on Aug. 7, but some analysts still see room for easing in the months ahead.
While fuel prices and a stronger koruna are helping to tame inflation, data are registering faster growth in service prices, Deputy Governor Eva Zamrazilova said. The shift, reflecting robust wage growth and strong household consumption, will take time to manage and require keeping monetary conditions tighter for longer, she said.
“From this point of view, for me the cycle of monetary easing is almost certainly finished,” Zamrazilova said in an interview on Monday. “It’s about nothing else than domestic demand.”
Policymakers in Prague have been increasingly focused on the housing market as an inflation driver, with listing prices of new and older homes jumping by 17% year-on-year in the second quarter, according to Czech Banking Association data.
Rates will need to remain somewhat elevated to avoid fueling property prices, Zamrazilova said. But that shouldn’t spur the central bank to lift borrowing costs for now, which would have little impact on long-term rates and may cause damage, she said.
“For me, raising rates isn’t something that I’m thinking about at the moment, as it would achieve very little at a very high cost,” she said. “But the trend in housing prices is a reason for not lowering rates further.”
‘Putting Money Into Bricks’
She framed the housing-market boost as driven by factors outside policymakers’ influence, reflecting an urge to seek safe returns. About half of home purchases in the Czech Republic are financed without a mortgage, indicating a tendency among households to hoard savings.
“The trend that I don’t see as positive is that real estate is perceived as a de-facto, risk-free investment asset,” she said. “This presents a challenge for the financial markets to offer alternative products that would attract investors and lure them away from putting money into bricks.”
The Czech government, rather than the central bank, must reduce the appeal of real estate, Zamrazilova said. That could entail tax-policy changes and a potential reassessment of rules granting non-European Union investors the same ownership rights as less affluent Czechs, she said.
Recent data meanwhile have shown a more optimistic economic picture, with signs of a gradual recovery in industry and sentiment indicators pointing to a better outlook for foreign demand, the deputy governor said.
The latest announcement about a US-EU agreement on trade tariffs also removes potential barriers to Czech economic activity and underpins an outlook for this year’s growth to exceed the central bank’s spring forecast of 2%, she said.
“It’s worse than if there were no tariffs, but it supports expectations that the economy won’t slow below 2%,” Zamrazilova said. “That risk has been more or less eliminated now.”
I recall all the consternation up north about the NAU and making Greenland and Canada part of the United States. I have one thing to say about that, you’ve been duped.
Asset owners rejoice in the art of the deal. Canadians are so concerned about Trump. Its liberal hivemind media hypnotized the entire country.
The economy down here is absolutely rocking. Only Trump’s opponents and the so-called economic experts, who embrace the Jew banker inspired gospel of Adam Smith, deny the obvious.