A warning to my fellow investors
Unless the Federal Reserve changes its course, the next unfolding “crisis” will be caused by rising longer-term sovereign bond yields around the world. As the 10-year Treasury continues to fall in price, it’s yield continues to march higher. Of course, as this blog has maintained, since the covid stimulus packages were announced, it was all avoidable.
Fixed-income investors, especially pensions and such, will be sitting on trillions of dollars in capital losses. There will only be one choice for the central banks going forward and that is to begin buying sovereign debt in ever larger quantities, regardless of any inflationary implications that would normally put such balance sheet additions on hold.
According to its charter, the Federal Reserve remits its net interest income back to the US Treasury. Thus, theoretically speaking, the more US Treasuries the Federal Reserve purchases, the less in interest the Federal government will have to pay on a net basis.
Without QE, all asset classes could be hit hard
This worm will turn. As sovereign bond yields march higher, every asset class, even BTC, will be receiving renewed downward pressure. I don’t know when we will see a reversal, but when it comes it could be hard and fast.
The only action that will steady asset prices under such a scenario will be one in which the central banks begin to add sovereign debt onto their balance sheets. But this of course, will come at a tremendous cost to most people alive today. Those who don’t own the assets are going to continue being wiped out.
The only saving grace about owning underlevered SFRs is that rents should continue to march higher in tandem with the general cost of living increases. However, the younger and foolish highly leveraged real estate investors who have never seen a true real estate downturn will be the ones selling for pennies on the dollar in foreclosure.
With QE, we could see higher institutionalized inflation growth
If the 10-year Treasury takes out 5.00% this time around, life will begin to be altered in some unusual ways.
This logic here is simple; the reasons why the 10-year Treasury yield rose to near 5% the last time around are different this time around.
Why? First of all, government inflation data are much lower than they were a couple years ago. Secondly, the global central banks of the developed Nations have begun cutting overnight rates. Thirdly, the global supply chain issues that were persisting 2 to 3 years ago no longer seem to be as pressing.
This time around, more and more fixed income investors are beginning to throw in the towel in ever increasing numbers as they are coming to the sobering conclusion that unless the Federal Reserve and other central banks begin buying trillions more in Treasuries and sovereign debt, the governments will have exhausted their ability to finance spending at prevailing rates and bond yields.
I suspect that many economists in the Federal Reserve are worried that a reignition of sovereign debt buying could ignite inflation and an even larger loss of confidence by investors and the average person alike.
Why are interest rate cuts not working as intended?
There’s another reason why longer dated bond yields are rising now, despite previous logic to the contrary. As the Federal Reserve and other central banks continue to cut overnight rates, short-term fixed income investors like myself find short dated securities less attractive.
Investors such as Warren Buffett have been parking their cash in short-dated Treasuries and Treasury money market funds, taking advantage of the relatively decent yield without having to risk principal. Many investors are no longer willing to take the risks involved that come with Bond investing and are simply refusing to buy fixed income securities with longer durations.
Thus, we are not witnessing the usual substitution effect that traditional fixed income investors would engage in. Specifically, bond investors and traders will often take a certain amount of money and determine which Treasury duration offers the best opportunity for yield and investment gain.
Instead, fixed income investors are increasingly bowing out altogether, given the unprecedented set of uncertainties. This, of course, will continue to put pressure on the nation states and their abilities to continue spending.
Why am I saying this? Despite a consensus on the street that thinks longer dated Treasury yields will be falling, we are seeing the opposite occur. Traders are demanding a higher risk premium, which translates into a higher yield.
The conditions for global conflict will emerge soon
If we think the conditions for war are ripe now, just wait as sovereign yields continue to spiral higher. The funny thing is that this will occur even as inflation seems to be falling, at least according to official measures. Hence the unprecedented conundrum.
If we think things are bad now, contemplate a scenario where the 10-year Treasury yield climbs above 5%. Mortgage rates will eclipse 8%, and we could see 10% on the conforming 30-year fixed during the Trump regime. Only the Fed and a QE bond buying program can assuage market concerns.
Cracks are already appearing in the Trump regime 2.0. Putin is playing Trump for a fool even before entering office. With the Democrat-inspired public finances quickly stretching fiscal spending to a breaking point, given a persistently elevated yield curve, we are being set up for an economic and societal catastrophe of unprecedented proportions.
The Fed is stuck, regardless of whatever it does in the future to address the growing inability of the nation-states to finance their spending. Once the 10-year Treasury yield takes out 5% this time around, life as we know it will begin to unravel in new ways and the time frame for the global conflict will become more defined.
Death by hanging or the firing squad
This unfolding fiscal car crash was completely avoidable in the first place. The covid related fiscal and monetary programmes, coupled with the wilfully ignorant Fed nonchalance regarding inflation caused the problems we face today.
If the Fed decides not to reinstitute asset balance sheet purchases, we will observe an unwinding of the asset markets across the board.
If the Fed reinstitutes its QE debt buying, we could see a massive uptick in inflation that will grind to a nub the lives of those who don’t own the assets.
If I were betting, I would wager that the FED will do whatever it takes to keep the Federal government in business and that means more QE, inflation be damned.
I am beginning to think of the possibility that the powers that be are trying to start a war before Trump’s inauguration to get him trapped in a war.
https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/news-selections/world-news/flash-bulletin-urgent-biden-authorizes-ukraine-to-use-long-range-missiles-to-attack-deep-interior-russia
https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/news-selections/world-news/iran-expands-notam-to-four-additional-zones-retaliation-against-israel
https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/news-selections/national-news/report-claims-massive-exodus-from-usa-early-sunday-morning. This last one may be Libtard’s fleeing the USA.
I would not be surprised that they may be speeding up the timeline due to the “wrong ” guy getting elected.
Hal Turner is a well known FBI informant. I wouldn’t trust anything he says.
Government credit “crowding out” in action
Credit Is Harder to Access as Rejection Rates Rise, Fed Survey Shows
The average rejection rate for mortgage applications increased by 8.6 percentage points to 20.7% in 2024, more than double the 2019 rate.
(Bloomberg) — US consumers had a tougher time accessing credit this year, with applications for auto loans and mortgage refinancing being turned down at the highest rates in more than a decade.
Despite largely stable demand, applications for various forms of credit were increasingly rejected in 2024, according to a survey released Monday by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Americans also became more pessimistic about their ability to tap credit in the future.
“Reported rejection rates for credit cards, mortgages, auto loans, credit card limit extension applications and mortgage loan refinance applications all rose in 2024,” the New York Fed said in a statement.
The findings showed reported rejection rates rose to 21% this year, from 20.1% in 2023. That’s well above the 17.6% seen before the pandemic. Borrowers with credit scores under 680 were especially likely to face rejection rates that were above pre-pandemic levels.
The average rejection rate for mortgage applications increased by 8.6 percentage points to 20.7% in 2024, more than double the 2019 rate. For mortgage refinances, the average rejection rate rose to a series high of 25.6%. And for auto loans, the rate rose to 11.4%, the highest since the start of the series in 2013.
Borrowers don’t expect it will become easier to obtain credit in the near term and fewer people are planning to apply for loans over the next year, the study showed. The share of people who said they are likely to apply for at least one type of credit in the next year dropped to 23.1% in 2024, down from 25.9% in 2023.
Landlords across the country are breathing a sigh of relief that Trump was reelected….
Rent Inflation Won’t Ebb Until 2026, Cleveland Fed Model Shows
(Bloomberg) — Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said last week central bankers are keeping a close eye on housing inflation, which “has yet to fully normalize.” They could be waiting more than a year.
It may take until mid-2026 for rent inflation in the consumer price index to subside toward its pre-pandemic norm, according to research by the Cleveland Fed. While several measures suggest that new rents in particular are coming down, fewer people are moving and signing new leases — so the sample in the CPI doesn’t capture as much turnover, the researchers said.
Shelter is the largest category in the CPI, and it accounted for more than half of the October monthly advance. Should the gauge remain elevated for another year-and-a-half as the Cleveland Fed projects, it will pose a challenge to policymakers who cite progress on inflation as a key argument to lower interest rates.
“The optics of rising inflation, even if lagged data like rent, make communication more challenging, which ultimately could make it harder to cut rates,” said Omair Sharif, president of Inflation Insights LLC. “We already had one dissent, and I think arguing for continued cuts in the face of rising CPI inflation could draw more.”
Sharif was referring to Michelle Bowman, who voted against the Fed’s half-point cut in September in favor of a smaller reduction — marking a rare dissent for a Fed governor, let alone anyone in Powell’s tenure. Central bankers unanimously decided to cut rates by a quarter point this month, but the outlook for December and beyond is less certain.
Powell, who spoke last week at an event in Dallas, said the strength of the US economy gives officials room to lower borrowing costs “carefully.” He said it would be smart to proceed slowly with rate cuts if the economic data allow.
Granted, the Fed targets inflation based on a separate gauge, the personal consumption expenditures price index. It doesn’t place as much weight on shelter, partly why it’s trending closer to officials’ 2% goal. But the PCE draws from the CPI to calculate its own housing measures, so the lag could affect both metrics.
“If it were to trend up in a way that 3% could be breached, then I think that would seriously complicate things,” said Michael Feroli, chief US economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co.
He was referring to the core PCE gauge, which excludes food and energy, and rose 2.7% in the year through September. Economists expect it to tick up to 2.8% when October data are released later this month.
CPI Calculation
The CPI is designed to measure inflation for the average consumer and samples rent increases for all renters, whether they’re re-signing an existing lease or entering a new one. Though current metrics from Zillow Group Inc. and Apartment List show rent growth has subsided, or even declined, in recent months, the CPI tends to follow those trends with a lag.
The Cleveland Fed paper, which was published last month, presents another complication — the authors found that declining mobility in the US is compounding the delay. So rent inflation will be more sticky since there are fewer people added to the new renter mix.
“There is intense policy interest in and a high amount of uncertainty about the future path of rent inflation,” they wrote.
MSTR just bought 51,780 Bitcoin for $4.6 billion. That’s slightly more than $88,800 per Bitcoin.
I guarantee that if MSTR were not buying Bitcoin, the price would be close to $10,000 lower right now.
The Bitcoin market is on fire and this massive amount of buying as the price is rising runs contra to prudence, I just find it euphoric right now. It’s like an orgy.
I agree, it looks like another Remphin* scheme. The dollars don’t get extinguished as the general public imagines, those dollars become someone elses bank reserves.
* Proprietary methods involving various formulas for leveraging non-overtly organized crowds to swindle finances from the general public via complicated means. Hypothecated currencies, ‘insider trading’, usury, fractional reserve lending and the like.
That word reminds me of the star of remphan mentioned in Acts 7:43, which was worshipped as Molech.
Also the star on the flag of Israel!
Same star also named Chiun in Amos 5:26, this and other swindles have been going on thousands of years. They just use different instruments.
We have to use these things as they manifest in order to survive, but really, it’s not like there are not enough mediums of exchange available for us to use.
Possibly setting up for a bitcoin crash like 2017.
According to polling numbers, 85% of blacks voted for Harris. It doesn’t matter the candidate, blacks vote Democrat.
https://www.terminaleconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/Race1118.jpg
What is interesting is that still a majority of Latinos, blacks, and asians voted for the kamel.
Even more interesting is that a majority of native Americans voted for Trump.
Just shows that blacks, Latinos, and Asians do not think beyond the box and want handouts.
That’s one of the many differences between Adamic and Non-Adamic man.
They don’t have gender or race on the ballots. Where did they get these statistics at? Was it a poll that was taken after the election?
One can tell they are going to break 100k with BTC. Everyone I know that had it sold and not buying at these levels. I’m expecting some type of down turn, but if they want it as a reserve then the goal would be to pump as high as they can get it to.
It was a CNN exit poll. It was part of a huge comprehensive questionnaire.
I Agree with BTC. Pump up BTC and the US government can payoff its debt. Things are strange and will get stranger.
Things aren’t looking to good for Meshech and Tubal. How high does the Bank of Russia have to raise the overnight rate to keep the ruble from falling below 100 to the dollar? Right now it’s 21% and that isn’t working. Despite rhetoric to the contrary, Japheth leader, Putin, is obsessed with this exchange rate.
North Korea May End Up Sending Putin 100,000 Troops for War
(Bloomberg) — North Korea may deploy as many as 100,000 troops to aid Russia’s war on Ukraine if the alliance between Pyongyang and Moscow continues to deepen, according to people familiar with assessments made by some Group of 20 nations.
The analysis is one of several on the evolving partnership between Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, said the people, speaking on condition of anonymity to talk about private discussions. They stressed that such a move wasn’t imminent and that military support at that scale — if it occurred — would likely happen in batches with troops rotating over time rather than in a single deployment.
And apparently Biden has approved Ukraine the use of long rang U.S. missiles to strike deep in Russia.
This is another email I received from a reader regarding the deceived charlatan who goes by the name Brother Nathaniel.
____________
Bro Nat calls Europeans, white Hellenics are sons of Japheth, Is he totally wrong? How could he be so ignorant? Russian Orthodox.
Alex….
_____________
I think you answered your own question to some extent. Nathaniel is a double-minded Jew and belongs to a church, and his particular church is a very toxic church, the Russian Orthodox Church.
Moreover, this man is a self-loathing Jew. He says so himself and he looks like a Jew. The problem with Jews is that they subconsciously or consciously hate white Western Europeans. Jews detest Caucasian Christians and so does he, because he damns Caucasian European Christians with faint praise.
Brother Nathaniel is as deceived as they come and is very effective in spreading Jew synagogue lies. He still claims to be the Israelite. He is as deceived as any Zionist, maybe worse.
Moreover, who’s paying his bills and his lifestyle? It’s not donations.
Avoid him if we are to seek the truth of how this world is really aligned the way it is. He either is a liar or is fooled and either way, we must avoid this toxic trash in the last days.
So much info can be discused with that question. Thomas correct me if i’m wrong on this as anything I know comes from someone or something else:
Japheth’s descendants were Gomer, Magog, Madai, Javan, Tubal, Meshech, and Tiras. Gomer’s descendants were Ashkenaz, Riphath, and Togarmah. So I see it is the White Caucasian race.
Ham’s decendants were the Black race.
Abraham was the descendant of Shem. So Esau and the edomites come from this lineage. And also Jacob.
Way too much history to put down in one comment. The timelines and names are hard to see in one’s head and would have to have a chart to look at for accuracy.
Thru the diaspora and over the years, races and cultures mingled and breeded within, to an ethicnically diverse people we have now. Not many people can claim pure racial existance, going back in time most everyone’s genealogies would show other races within.
Like Henry Makow, Brother Nathanael is controlled opposition. Yet for some reason they give out very good information that wakes people up. Do they secretely root for the underdogs(gentiles), or are they not getting their fair share amongst their own kind? The information they give isn’t a game changer, the people at the top are still in control and more successful than ever. Nobody is using the information to take back the Country. The Truth no longer matters, so why make an effort to hide it. As Leonard Cohen stated “Everybody Knows”.
We all know we have been lied to about our history and who we are, many of us want as much of the hidden truth we can get. Difficult to weed thru the misinformation. People are on various levels within the Rabbit Hole.
Yes. When I study the names of the various tribal descendants of the people you mentioned, they all go back to Japheth. These are all descended from Japheth. All of them, and they hate the Israelites. Which means they hate the Western European Caucasian descendants, which is us.
This is why Ezekiel 38 and 39 line up so perfectly for that latter days catastrophic war and make such perfect sense
AND why the European Caucasian peoples CANNOT be descendants of Japheth. I ask you, who is going to cover whom like a storm and a cloud in the latter days? Russia, Central Asia, Siberian Asia, China will cover Europe and especially US and Canada like a storm, as outlined in Ezekiel 38 and 39.
As for Esau Edom, he comes from Abraham, which is why the rabbis of Jesus’ time mentioned that Abraham was their father. This is technically correct. However, these Edomites did not come from Jacob and are therefore, not Israelites. Esau was Jacob’s brother and both were from Isaac and Rebekah.
It can be confusing, but I have been studying this for almost 25 years. Not as an unwashed religious Catholic from birth, but as a washed man seeking the truth in a world of deception. I study this as a lone wolf crying in the wilderness. And I say flat out, the entire stack of organized churches are fully deceived.
With regards to controlled opposition, the two people you mentioned are controlled by their upbringing and their Judaistic faith. That is a huge stumbling block for them and though they may wake up people to various obvious truths, what types of truth are you referencing?
If it’s the ultimate truth, the existential truths of why we’re here, and how the chess pieces are lined up here in the final days, there is no truth on their blogs and in words to be found.
If I had not uncovered what I have found over the past 25 years or so via independent study, I would have found the works of these types of people to be very demoralizing and confusing.
I think these two individuals find many of my words to be either hogwash or offensive. These Jews still think they are the Israelites of the Bible and will steer you towards Paul’s Epistles as verification of their falsehoods. I certainly know that Brother Nathaniel has stopped by in the past. I’m sure they get angry at what I write about this.
Based on my research, I have concluded that the African blacks are not Adamic man, but Genesis 1 man. Thus, the blacks didn’t descend from Ham and Canaan, despite them fitting Noah’s description in his blessings and curses to his three sons. African blacks have been on this planet maybe for tens of thousands of years, while Adamic man has been here for six thousand or so years, according to the Bible calculations.
That’s an interesting theory. Would you say there is a thousands year gap between Genesis 1:1 and Genesis 1:2? In other words, a world that was?
Thousands of years. Asians, too, plus other races scattered around the four corners (e.g. meso Americans) were not Adamic man. Something happened between day 6 and Adamic man. It wasn’t good either, which is why Yahweh had to try again. Man kept screwing up. All of the prior incarnations of man kept worshiping devils and demons. All non Abrahamic religions in one way or another worshiped the devil. Even the African blacks were animistic in their religious practices.
When the Bible mentioned a term like the “whole earth”, it didn’t mean the whole earth per se, but rather the known Earth to the people in which the Bible was involved.
All of the different races of people weren’t scattered because of something like the Tower of Babel. There was something much further back, because my research into all the archaeological finds from just the past 30 years of discoveries has thrown all of the judeo Christianity beliefs on its head.
Many of these types of theories were much more commonplace up till about 200 years ago, but the churches have all been taken over and truly have a communist mind. This is especially true of the last days Catholic Church as well as the organized Protestant religions.
I’m just finding it increasingly difficult to reconcile all the different races of people’s with all their Stark differences to only going back 6,000 years or so, let alone a post-diluvian divergence with Noah’s sons less than 4500 years ago. It just can’t happen with all that genetic difference. The mainstream theme of Genesis that began to coalesce after 325 AD just does not add up. There were humans walking this planet for thousands of years longer than Adamic man has been around.
About 20 years ago, I used the KJV to calculate the number of years back to Adam and it wasn’t that difficult to determine that the timeline between Adam’s appearance in Eden to today is roughly 6,100 years.
I do understand that the Jew synagogue had a hand in changing around the Bible and that some versions show that Shem was not alive when Abraham was. The difference is about 400 years.
Regardless, Adamic man has only been on this planet for roughly 6,000 years. This would also help us to line up a timeline of that great war in the latter days that would be just before the return of Father Yahweh as outlined in Ezekiel and Jeremiah. These Latter-Day prophets indicated a return of the god of the Bible to help defend the Israelite remnants, which would line up with Revelation. To the modern Christian, this would mean Jesus’s return.
Keep preaching the truth, brother!
What are your thoughts on Genesis 6? Do you interpret this as fallen angels mating with woman? This could also explain the non Adamic races which are here now and we’re not intended The book of Enoch is Interesting in this regard. In any case, I agree, all these non Adamic people are not for the most part involved in the plan of salvation.
As to the 6000 years, we know there are 7 days in the week. The first 6 for this age and the last for the Millennium. 2 Peter 3:8.
Genesis 6 is probably as the Christian community claims. I have no reason to disagree with that. Keep in mind that the Bible discusses Adamic man and not all man. Yahweh was concerned that these fallen demons would corrupt the seed line to Jesus.
The Bible was certainly was not discussing Mesoamericans, Aborigines, Eskimos, Chinese people, etc. The Bible confined its discussion to Adamic man and the Bible clearly discussed the tribes and nations of the time. The Bible didn’t even discuss the Dravidian people in India. It didn’t discuss the people in North America, nor the East Asian mixes.
In addition, for the few who understand Genesis 48-49, we see which peoples were blessed in the LAST days with their descriptions. Joseph with his sons, Ephraim and Manasseh, were double blessed. Anyone with any discernment can easily deduce who they are. The European Caucasian people ALSO brought us the entire Bible and the gospel. Not Japheth, nor some sardonic hook nosed (and unwitting?) Jew synagogue members like Brother Nathaniel or his tribal buddies.
Despite the Catholic Church’s best attempts to create a communist church for the last days going back to 325 AD, with its partnership of the Jew synagogue of its time, the truth is still coming out like a whisper as more people throw in the towel and are looking for true answers.
I am the meager steward of small stature that takes his two talents and turns them into four. I dedicate my life to YAHWEH!
Amen brother
Everyone’s controlled opposition.
No one is out of control.
The police make sure of that.
Henry Makow seems genuine to me (I’ve read his site almost every day for 20 years), and he seems to genuinely want to find the truth. In what way do you think he’s controlled? Direct control, or just the normal control we are all under?
Controlled opposition I figure to stir up antipathy to the synagogues chosen folks. The victim narrative is a powerful tool. Old tricks are the best trick.
I was asked to comment on a man that claims Austin real estate is collapsing and the rental market is in free fall. Specifically, there is a gentleman by the name of Nick Gerli who seems to be a Cassandra. I don’t know much about him, but a look online shows his work coming up on ZeroHedge as well as Newsweek, Fortune, Business Insider, Fox, etc , and his conclusions are rather grim.
A back of the envelope calculation reveals Austin house prices are up 49% since early 2020. That is amazing. Housing around the world is extremely overvalued on a classical basis for many years now, but it continues to move higher, affordability be damned.
House prices in Fairfax County in the same time frame are up “only” 28%.
My first question is how does a guy with no formal training nor educational background in real estate economics and finance figure so prominently in the business press?
My answer is straightforward; this guy has a predetermined outcome that these outlets desire to show the readers.
Moreover, why does his particular Cassandra figure so prominently in the MSM, and thus the propagandized alt-media like ZH? Maybe his output can be used to demoralize the consumer. Maybe Gerli made a *deal”, because there are many others who claim the same things, but remain unheard.
This type of Cassandra crash talk will be used all the way to 2030, when the consumers of this sort of confirmation bias reaffirmation will realize they’ve been duped and will never own a stick of real estate.
They will never own, yet be happy, especially their own houses. Perhaps the people who remained on the sidelines can apply for many of the new Soviet-style social housing developments that are on the drawing board.
China’s Dream of ‘Powerful Currency’ Runs Into Trump’s Return
Bloomberg News
The yuan is more vulnerable than it was during the last trade war.
(Bloomberg) — China’s President Xi Jinping wants a “powerful currency” that is stable enough to play a rising role in global trade. Donald Trump’s return looks set to challenge that ambition.
The yuan risks years of downward pressure during the second Trump presidency, and the threat of another trade war is already fueling bets against the currency. Analysts expect the yuan to break a 17-year low against the dollar in 2025, with the most bearish observers predicting a decline of around 10%.
The yuan is more vulnerable than it was during the last trade war. Chinese government bond yields are well below those in the US. Foreign companies are pulling back investments. Economic growth is patchy, and the specter of deflation may drag interest rates even lower.
“The downward pressure is likely to intensify,” said Adam Wolfe, emerging markets economist at Absolute Strategy Research. The People’s Bank of China “will likely continue to support the yuan for a while given its financial stability concerns about a bigger devaluation. But if a trade war does kick off, the PBOC might allow more depreciation to protect China’s exports and improve its negotiating position.”
That logic is encouraging traders to ramp up bets against the currency. The onshore yuan traded at an intraday low of around 7.248 on Nov. 14, its weakest level in three months, and options traders are betting on a further decline. The offshore rate was around 7.237 on Friday.
BNP Paribas SA expects the dollar-yuan to stabilize around 7.5 if Trump follows through on his pledge to impose 60% tariffs on Chinese goods, while UBS AG forecasts a rate of 7.60-7.70 next year and Societe Generale SA expects 7.40 in the second quarter. These forecasts all point to the onshore yuan breaching its low last year of 7.351, the weakest level since 2007.
Some analysts go even further: Jefferies Financial Group Inc. expects daily yuan fixings of around 8 yuan per dollar in 2025. The last time the yuan was at that level, in 2006, George W. Bush was president, Twitter was only a few months old and China’s economy was smaller than Germany’s.
Analysts say letting the yuan weaken is the path of least resistance, and one that benefits Chinese exports should the US hike tariffs. But the real debate is about how much — and how fast — the PBOC will allow the currency to depreciate.
Beijing engineered a yuan devaluation in 2015, when the PBOC allowed a one-off 1.9% decline in the daily fixing rate. That triggered massive capital outflows and shrank China’s foreign currency reserves. It also strengthened US arguments that the nation was a ‘currency manipulator’, a designation that was made official in Trump’s first term.
“Devaluation of the yuan would mean further economic pressures and debt woes, as well as a threat of being tagged as a currency manipulator,” said Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo Markets. She said the move would put further strains on the already tense relationship between China and the US.
More likely is the PBOC accepting a slow and steady depreciation — and relying on less direct measures to fight back.
In the past few years, the PBOC has refined its toolkit, as rapid interest-rate hikes by the Federal Reserve hit currencies across the world. China’s current FX playbook includes setting stronger daily fixings, which limit the trading range of its onshore currency each day; adjusting the amount of foreign exchange banks need to hold in reserve against deposits; and encouraging state-owned banks to manage liquidity in the offshore market.
The PBOC set the yuan’s reference rate at a level stronger than expected between Wednesday and Friday, signaling its discomfort with the recent decline, while state-owned banks sold dollars onshore. Traders are now keeping a close eye on offshore yuan funding markets, where expectations are building that state banks’ overseas units could tighten the supply of yuan to squeeze bearish wagers.
The PBOC unleashed a domestic stimulus blitz in late September, and other arms of China’s government have since followed with their own initiatives. Economists say if the stimulus is successful, it would help cushion the economy against shocks from US tariffs.
Ironically, China’s aim to stem the yuan’s slide against the dollar may get support from Trump himself. The president-elect favors a weaker dollar, which would make US goods cheaper for the rest of the world, although Wall Street banks think he’s unlikely to get his wish.
China has for years been promoting the internationalization of its currency, part of Xi’s broad ambition to turn the country into a global financial power. The government has had some success in spreading the overseas use of the currency, but Beijing sees a stable yuan — without extreme moves in either direction — as being key to further success.
“The worst case scenario for the CNY in my view would be if policymakers give up on the currency stability objective and allow for the CNY to rapidly depreciate,” said Lynn Song, chief Greater China economist at ING Bank NV. “This sort of decision will have to come from a change of thinking from the top, maybe a pivot away from the long term renminbi internationalisation goals to focus more on short-term issues.”
That would be “very short-sighted and ineffective,” he said.
I wonder if the latest stock market behavior is telling us that a crisis is looming to set Trump and his republican followers as the fall guys. I think Powell is attempting to stab Trump in the back. It is interesting that Powell cut the rate an aggressive 50 basis points right before the election and now that the election is over and the “wrong guy” got in he is suddenly sounding hawkish.
Check out this article about the Fed suddenly draining the liquidity:
https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/news-selections/national-news/setting-up-a-crash-federal-reserve-pulls-more-than-half-of-credit-available-through-bank-term-funding-program-btfp
This is all orchestrated. We’ve been played like a violin for years! Just like a play. All the world is a stage!
10-year UST yield touches 4.50%. Soon, we finally will have a positively sloped yield curve. Unfortunately, it’s not what the deceived bond investors originally had in mind.
Bank of Russia will raise its overnight rate to 22% soon. Inflation continues to show its head around the world. It’s a pernicious type of inflation that can’t be tamed anymore, unless of course, the national nation state governments curtail deficit spending. I doubt that will happen.
So, hyper inflation here we come!
I wouldn’t say that, but we are going to continue to have inflation and bond investors are coming around to the conclusion that it won’t be going back to the way it was. Elevated price growth and an ongoing loss of confidence in the individual central banks to tame a problem they all caused.
I suspect that the crisis will continue on a slow boil until a solution is proffered. The solution will be some sort of international Central Bank.
Holy smokes! Hot hot data with hefty upward revisions. Bonds can’t get a break.
Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct)
Act: 0.4% Cons: 0.3% Prev: 0.8%
Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct)
Act: 0.1% Cons: 0.3% Prev: 1.0%
Retail Sales (YoY) (Oct)
Act: 2.80% Cons: 2.5% Prev: 2.00%
Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos (MoM) (Oct)
Act: 0.1% Cons: 0.5% Prev: 1.2%
Revised Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos (MoM) (September)
Act: 1.2% Cons: 0.8% Prev: 1.2%
Export Price Index (MoM) (Oct)
Act: 0.8% Cons: -0.1% Prev: -0.6%
Import Price Index (MoM) (Oct)
Act: 0.3% Cons: -0.1% Prev: -0.4%
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Nov)
Act: 31.20 Cons: -0.30 Prev: -11.90
I cannot believe how deceived The Alex Jones followers are.
A glance at his X feed looks like it could have been written by Winston Smith after reading The Theory and Practice of Oligarchical Collectivism, while sleeping in bed with Julia.
Jones and his ilk have done a tremendous job. I tip my hat to the enemy. Wow! The transformation is complete. I certainly hope the Democrats take at least the house in the midterms two years from now.
I will look back at the cross-dressing Biden regime with nostalgia. When even my Hispanic neighbors in three of the houses voted for Trump, there’s enough Kool-Aid for everyone.
You bet. Its a Trump love fest! Or should we say worship fest?
Alex Jones is riding off into the sunset as he did his service. Expect a lot of upheavals with Trump presidency. A lot of these shifts probably will be very painful. Trump is ready to do his service for the Cabal. Fasten your seat belts.
Trump nominated RFK, Jr. As HHS Secretary and the vaccine shares took a dump.
PFE can go f’ itself!
How’s that tasty PFE dividend looking now?🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
To those former readers who sardonically said that PFE was immune from vaccine liability and were buying for the yield, I said it wouldn’t matter if PFE didn’t pay a dime of damages. It’s a phyrric victory. I asked the existential question;
Given how Pfizer clearly did no due diligence regarding its covid injections, why would foreign nation state governments and many other patients ever want to take any other Pfizer product ever again?
To which, I suspect there was lots of eye rolling.
The 20-year chart is just as sad looking. The stock price effectively has gone nowhere in 20 years. That’s because the world is increasingly shutting out Pfizer products over anything else. Pfizer is a lame duck piece of shit and the management will burn in hell for what they did. Pfizer’s board boasts a continually rising yield for 41 years, yet it’s increasingly paying it out with their dwindling cash on hand.
Update: PFE currently trading with a 24 handle. What a dumpster fire 🔥
Where’s ZeroHedge?
Russia’s economy is heading toward a fate worse than recession, pro-Kremlin economists say
Russia is facing the mounting risk of stagflation, a think tank tied to the Kremlin said.
The nation’s high interest rates will trigger an economic a downturn while inflation remains high, TsMAKP said.
Tight monetary policy is costing Russian business profitability and risks spurring bankruptcies.
Moscow’s failed attempt to stamp out inflation is driving the country towards its worst-case economic scenario, according to a Russian think tank tied to the government.
On Wednesday, TsMAKP condemned Russia’s tight monetary policy, warning that high interest rates will trigger an economic downturn. With inflation still running hot, that could create a nightmare outcome for Kremlin officials: stagflation.
“As a result of the central bank’s actions, the Russian economy is effectively facing the threat of stagflation — simultaneous stagnation or even recession and high inflation,” the government advising think tank said, as translated by Reuters.
This scenario, where growth is low and inflation high, is most feared by any central bank.
Stagflation is harder to escape than a recession. When an economy typically slows down, central banks can loosen interest rates to revive activity. But that option disappears if inflation keeps rising: interest rates must stay high to cool price growth.
Put simply, the Kremlin’s hands appear to be tied.
Russia’s central bank has already sensed the looming risk of stagflation, citing that price growth remained stubbornly high in the first half of 2024 despite cooling domestic demand.
To that end, the bank elected to raise Russia’s key interest rate to a record high of 21% last month, and indicated more to come.
So far, however, high interest rates have shown limited impact on Russia’s inflation rate, which hit 8.63% in September. Though annual inflation slowed to 8.54% in October, food prices continue to soar. That includes Russian staples such as the potato, which is up 64% this year, as of November 5th.
Russian prices may seem largely indifferent to tight monetary policy, but the country’s business leaders are not. Sergei Chemezov, the CEO of the country’s defense conglomerate Rostec, warned that record interest rates were costing businesses profitability, and would trigger nationwide bankruptcies.
“The current high level of the key interest rate and the indicated prospects for further increases have created a risk of economic downturn and a collapse in investments in the near future,” TsMAKP said.
With the central bank now operating in the shadow of stagflation, the worst may still be ahead. Data released on Wednesday showed that Russia’s economy slumped 3.1% year-over-year in the last quarter.
“We think that year-on-year GDP growth will probably slow further over the coming quarters as war-related constraints on the economy continue to act as a limit on activity, and monetary tightening weighs more heavily on domestic demand,” Capital Economics wrote on Wednesday But with inflation likely to remain elevated, the central bank will probably tighten monetary policy further.”
The research firm expects Russia’s central bank to hike the key interest rate to 22% next month.
This is something almost no one is reporting. One by one, the world economy is headed for the big hurt!
The stock market is suddenly acting like the world is headed for serious economic hurt after the election euphoria blowoff.
How much longer can the Bank of Russia buy rubles for dollars and raise their overnight rates, currently at 21%, to keep the ruble below 100 to the dollar?
CCP and China use the yuan for bilateral trade. Russia’s economy slowly burns to ground.
I am still reeling from the excitement of the Trump election a week later. I am joyful to see a pushback against weaponized government agencies, against higher taxes, and against a government that feels it can make decisions for us. It is also a drubbing against high handed liberal academics.
However, I believe we are not out of the woods. I see the opponents plotting their next moves against Trump, such as the Fed maybe holding interest rates or raising them. Trump won’t be able to kick out Powell until 2026. They may orchestrate a recession or depression and that would suck for us asset owners. The Rinos are already mounting challenges to his nominations for office.
I also believe those up top allowed him to win this election for a number of reasons one of which is to potentially cover the tracks of the 2020 stolen election. I can see the democrats are still stealing some senate and congressional elections to soften the blow against them. I think there is the possibility that Dave McCormick’s win will be stolen with the recount in Pennsylvania.
There will be a lot more chaos and unpredictability with Trump in office as the opponents will throw monkey wrenches into the works and Trump fights back. If Kamel got elected there would be a slow predictable decline. Be prepared for the unpredictable. While it is a relief that Trump won, just remember that he is not a savior. Only Jesus Christ is your savior. Buckle your seat belts as there will be a lot of turbulence ahead the next four years. Jesus Christ is your seatbelt.
Goldman says investors are underestimating how deep rate cuts will be in 2025
The market is underestimating how much the Federal Reserve’s will cut rates in 2025, Goldman Sachs says.
The Fed fund rate will drop to 3.25-3.50% by the end of 2025, the bank estimates.
The firm said a near-term drag from Trump tariffs could keep the Fed cutting through the first quarter.
Markets are underestimating how much the Federal Reserve is going to cut interest rates next year, Goldman Sachs predicted.
In the bank’s latest macro outlook, it estimated that the Fed funds rate could drop to 3.25%-3.5% in 2025.
That’s considerably below what investors see as the highest-probability outcome, as calculated by the CME FedWatch Tool. It currently sees a 30% chance of rates being in the 3.75%-4.0% range by the end of next year.
The disconnect reflects the degree to which investors are wary about the potentially inflationary effect President-elect Donald Trump’s policies could have. The Fed generally tackles inflation by raising interest rates, which is seen challenging the central bank’s plan for further easing.
But Goldman forecasts that Trump’s tariffs might actually justify rate cuts by prompting an economic slowdown in the early going. In these situations, the Fed eases monetary policy to revive activity.
“If anything, the threat of a near-term growth drag from tariffs and the Fed leadership’s continued preference for frontloaded policy normalization have strengthened our confidence in sequential cuts through early next year,” Goldman analysts led by chief economist Jan Hatzius wrote on Thursday.
As for reinflation concerns, Goldman assumes that Trump’s tariffs will only target China and auto exports coming from Europe and Mexico. In this scenario, US core inflation would reach a “benign” level of 2.4% by late 2025.
However, if the incoming president follows through on a pledge to implement across-the-board 10% tariffs on all US trade, that figure would rise to 3.1% by early 2026.
Still, Goldman noted that disinflation has been ongoing globally, and is a trend that is likely to keep up.
“Against this backdrop, we do not expect the US election outcome to derail the policy normalization process that is currently underway, and see most major central banks easing significantly further through 2025,” the note said.
To be sure, Goldman acknowledged that Trump’s policies remain uncertain, creating the risk of an earlier stopping point for the Fed’s cutting cycle. Much of this will depend on the Fed’s willingness to respond preemptively to future inflation boosts.
But for now, growth risks are the Fed’s key priority, Goldman noted.
Maybe there might be an economic depression in the works.
For a fair percentage of the population, they already are operating as if their world is in a depression. To these sad and lost souls, it’s just a matter of semantics.
Inside job, this time the Americans are the bad guys in World War 3
https://rumble.com/v5p8ewq-inside-job-s01e08-buzzkill-ww3-americans-bad-guys-videoclip.html
Maybe this will have something to do with it! Except follows:
Donald Trump’s choice as the next United States defence secretary has called for the building of a third Jewish temple on the site of Al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem.
Pete Hegseth, a former TV show host, was picked by the incoming US President Trump for the role following his election victory earlier this month.
Hegseth has previously touted his avowedly pro-Israel credentials, which derive in part from his fundamentalist Christian beliefs.
Speaking at an event in Jerusalem in 2018 he said there was “no reason why the miracle of re-establishing the temple on the Temple Mount isn’t possible”, using the Israeli name for the raised plateau in occupied East Jerusalem where Al-Aqsa Mosque stands.
And there you have it! The legacy alt-media, headed up by Alex Jones, has now been officially submerged into the Left Right paradigm.
Freemason, Alex jones, has dutifully carried out his orders as a man of influence and has labored to successfully diffuse true resistance and submerge it into the political dialectic process.
ZeroHedge has worked hand in glove with people like Alex Jones and the naive Joel Skousen to successfully submerge the naive resistance into the Left Right paradigm as well.
Skousen rigorously reports on the flaws of the West outlined in Zero Hedge, while overlooking the same set of circumstances in Russia. Skousen relies on the enemy’s propaganda. Moreover, ZH has skillfully dispensed its Soviet propaganda onto the unwitting and foolish masses.
The only ones left are the few independent bloggers still trying to explain what they see, given their expertise. These people don’t depend on money from others with advertisements or subscriptions, nor from donations.
There are a few true church preachers left, and if you uncover one, give to him freely and anonymously without expecting anything in return, especially a tax deduction. Don’t try to influence these true preachers. Appreciate what they say.
I will try my best to write down and say what I truly think is true and dedicate my blog exclusively to Father Yahweh in the name of Jesus the Christ.
I belong to no church. I belong to no secret organizations. I have no ulterior motive except to achieve a better resurrection.
Hosea 4:1 KJV
Hear the word of the Lord, ye children of Israel: for the Lord hath a controversy with the inhabitants of the land, because there is no truth, nor mercy, nor knowledge of God in the land.
Warm PPI data this morning and revisions are hotter.
PPI (YoY) (Oct)
Act: 2.4% Cons: 2.3% Prev: 1.9%
PPI (MoM) (Oct)
Act: 0.2% Cons: 0.2% Prev: 0.1%
PPI ex. Food/Energy/Transport (MoM) (Oct)
Act: 0.3% Cons: 0.2% Prev: 0.1%
PPI ex. Food/Energy/Transport (YoY) (Oct)
Act: 3.5% Cons: 3.4% Prev: 3.3%
Core PPI (MoM) (Oct)
Act: 0.3% Cons: 0.3% Prev: 0.2%
Core PPI (YoY) (Oct)
Act: 3.1% Cons: 3.0% Prev: 2.9%
Initial Jobless Claims
Act: 217K Cons: 224K Prev: 221K
Continuing Jobless Claims
Act: 1,873K Cons: 1,880K Prev: 1,884K
Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.
Act: 221.00K Cons: Prev: 227.25K
According to the US Treasury, the average interest rate the federal government pays on its outstanding debt has effectively doubled since 2021, and has increased from 1.61% to 3.32%.
This phenomenon, in which the government consumes an ever larger portion of the credit market, is referred to as “crowding out.” As the government consumes more and more of available credit, consumers are left with a smaller pie and higher financing costs.
$BTM looks nice…. I got some shares in pre-market at 2.60.
I’m sorry for those who bought on this recommendation. Since I’m a trader, I dumped 70% of my shares later in pre-market at $2.80. I still hold the rest of them, though I am sitting on a nice profit for the day.
U.S. October budget deficit jumps to $257 billion, handing hole to Trump
Summary
•One-off factors inflated October deficit, US Treasury says
•October starts fiscal 2025, which Trump assumes in January
•Gross interest costs decline for first time since August 2023
•Social Security, health care, military costs rose in October
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-october-budget-deficit-jumps-257-billion-handing-hole-trump-2024-11-13/
WASHINGTON, Nov 13 (Reuters) – The U.S. budget deficit jumped nearly four-fold to $257 billion in October, a figure inflated by one-off factors, the Treasury Department said on Wednesday in a report that started off a new fiscal year with a big hole to be turned over to President-elect Donald Trump in January.
The Treasury said the October deficit was up 287% from the $67 billion deficit in October 2023, but calendar adjustments in benefit payments had cut that month’s deficit nearly in half.
A U.S. Treasury official also said that in October 2023, the Treasury received about $75 billion in tax payments that had been deferred by wildfires in California and other natural disasters that year.
Without these adjustments, the official said the October 2024 deficit would have been about $47 billion, or 22% higher than the prior October.
The budget results for October, the first month of the 2025 fiscal year, come after President Joe Biden’s administration turned in a full-year fiscal 2024 deficit of $1.83 trillion, the largest outside the COVID-19 era.
Trump presided over the biggest-ever U.S. budget deficit of $3.1 trillion in fiscal 2020, the result of massive COVID relief spending coupled with a massive halt to economic activity that collapsed federal revenues.
Hypocrisy in action; Trump’s first term saw a growing budget deficit with the largest yearly deficit in history.
During his first term, President Trump presided over the biggest-ever U.S. budget deficit of $3.1 trillion in fiscal 2020, the result of massive COVID relief spending coupled with a massive halt to economic activity that collapsed federal revenues.
Correctomundo!
Hello Thomas,
Could you please explain why Trump would stack the the USA national reserves with Bitcoin. I read Whitney Webb’s commentary on the USA gov’t loading up on Bitcoin, but I must confess, my head started to spin as she went on about the the national debt being backed by Bitcoin. Could you please shed some light on this.
Thanks,
Gary
Gary,
Honestly, I have no idea. I guess if people think a BTC can go to $10 million, the US could have enough to pay off the national debt.
It sounds like the $1 trillion platinum coin idea that people joked about having Janet Yellon producing for the US Treasury.
Musk probably owns more BTC than MSTR and has been telling Trump what to say about crypto. Trump received probably 10 million votes just on his crypto campaign message.
I honestly don’t know how the Fed could accumulate BTC in size without keeping the price below a million. If the debt was backed by BTC, we are talking of multi million BTC price.
The judicial system would shoot down any thought of having the USG basically control the BTC market in that manner.
Why not back all residential real estate with BTC? Why not back the whole stock market with BTC?
All this crypto shilling is coming from the promoters who are pumping it. It’s a pumpers dream and the people are living delusional lives like the libtards.
The downside when the drunk has a hangover will be a doozy.
I stopped following the information flow on this over a year ago, but the largest single holder of BTC at the time was the CCP at 194,000 coins. All confiscated, so weighted average cost of zero. Second highest at that time was Micro Strategy at 168,000 coins at an average cost of $28,000. The rest of the holders got significantly smaller after that with a lot of individual wallets with unknown holders.
I would imagine if you had a huge holding that cost zero, you could cause damage in either direction if you really wanted to and it’s clear that right now nobody wants to.
Thank you Thomas!
It’s all normal now. 30-year old in great shape dies from a heart attack. 🫶🫶🫶
R.I.P.
Fitness Influencer Dies Suddenly On Vacation At 30 — After Mentioning ‘Dying Young’ In Instagram Post
https://perezhilton.com/fitness-influencer-jaxon-tippet-dies-suddenly-on-vacation-turkey-30/amp/
I am a true novice regarding investing and I appreciate your blog Stone, as I’m trying to play catch-up. Sometimes you talk over my head, but I’m trying.
We currently live in the northeast. We have a nice small house that I love. However I don’t like the cold weather or the state.
I am looking to buy in Florida, but every person online seems to think it’s not a good place in the coming collapse. I’m really concerned about keeping my money in CD’s and was talking to others on a forum who. all took their money out of the bank. I’m sure you know about ‘predictive programming’ and the X-files had a segment on CRSPR being injected back in an old episode. In it they say that the bank is going to steal everyone’s money.
I 100% believe they will do this. We basically have very little rights left. Some lawyers are corrupt and one stole a lot of money from us. I spoke with another lawyer who told me if we tried to get the money back it would cost us $50k and we’d never get it back. The judge was corrupt too and she let him steal it. Everyone is unethical.
I went to the hospital and was chatting with a nice young black guy. For some reason we clicked. The TV news was on about 5 cops who beat this young man to death. The young guy said: “Mrs. R, what you see there is nothing. My friends and I have had terrible things done to us by cops.” People need to wake up that we’re in the Wild West. We have few rights left. A family member was leaving our driveway, and he puts his seat belt on while driving. A cop pulled up and ticketed him. It’s all stealing to generate income for the state. They don’t care about your safety.
What are your thoughts about us buying in Florida and possibly renting it for short term stays? Or, we could rent out our current house. I am so afraid of keeping my money in CD’s that I’m looking for some income-generating real estate, but I don’t know if I should risk owning real estate that I’m far from.
A family member into real estate has a tenant who stopped paying and was living in the house for free. He kept being nice and the strung him along. He finally had to drive cross country to post a notice to remove them. They still won’t leave. They have 30 days but are being stone ignorant and don’t care that they’re harming someone else.
So I’m uncertain what to do.
I guess under the pre-existing false dichotomy of the left right paradigm, the Trump regime and his Alex Jones supporters are now supporting the tracking and tracing of our finances through cryptos, electric cars with TSLA, and brain implants by Elon Musk.
Here we go!
Trump wants to fill the United States national reserves with bitcoin. Why doesn’t he mention gold?
The Jew synagogue is buying the gold while pumping Bitcoin.
Trump is a good goy boy.
Trump is also planning to expand the use of the federal death penalty. I wonder who might end up on that list?
Repeat after me, the Jews are God’s chosen people. 🤣🤣🤣
Ha! That’s right! I forgot!
Meanwhile, Trump is loading up on pro Zionists in his cabinet. Excerpt from recent article.
President-elect Donald Trump began shaping his cabinet this week, rolling out nominations that feature people deeply connected to the Jewish and pro-Israel communities, including Mike Huckabee, Steve Witkoff, and Marco Rubio.
His first national security picks are die-hard Israel supporters some of whom have denied the existence of the Palestinian people and back the annexation of the occupied West Bank. These loyalists are set to advance his “America First” and hardline populist agenda in a second term, could signal some shifts in longstanding U.S. policy, especially regarding a possible conflict with Iran and resolving conflicts in the Middle East.
10-year UST yield 4.457% HOD. Treasuries were supposed to advance today as yesterday’s sell-off was supposedly overdone.
The consensus is wrong again.
Almost to that 5% could you please post a chart of the 10ust so readers can see how close it is and compare to other indicators?
So under these conditions, PMs, especially gold, are good?
It depends. Higher bond yields means a stronger dollar, all other things being equal.
A stronger dollar means weaker commodities. All of the things being equal, a stronger dollar normally puts downward pressure on gold and silver.
There’s been a strong relief rally in the asset classes with a Trump victory. If Harris won, stocks would have taken a dump, bonds yields would have fallen, gold would have continued rising and the dollar would have most likely weakened.
Trump is promoting deregulation, which helps asset prices. In this instance, stocks and Bitcoin are the direct beneficiaries.
With the consensus on the street being that Trump will generate inflation through his protectionist measures, this translates into a stronger dollar, weaker commodity prices, and weaker gold and silver. This also means that bond prices would decline.
Gold had a very nice run up going into the election on fears that Harris would win the election. What we’re seeing is an unraveling of that trade.
If bond yields continue rising, that means potential problems for gold’s short and intermediate term prospects. I’m not saying selling it is the good idea, but just be prepared to deal with some turbulence.
All primary CPI data come in as expected.
Core CPI (MoM) (Oct)
Act: 0.3% Cons: 0.3% Prev: 0.3%
Core CPI (YoY) (Oct)
Act: 3.3% Cons: 3.3% Prev: 3.3%
Core CPI Index (Oct)
Act: 321.67 Cons: 321.65 Prev: 320.77
CPI (MoM) (Oct)
Act: 0.2% Cons: 0.2% Prev: 0.2%
CPI (YoY) (Oct)
Act: 2.6% Cons: 2.6% Prev: 2.4%
CPI Index, n.s.a. (Oct)
Act: 315.66 Cons: 315.59 Prev: 315.30
Treasuries rallied right after the data release, but have since given up most those gains.
I have a question for you. If the federal funds rate and the 10 year Treasury hit par, is that a sign of trouble?
It doesn’t necessarily mean anything. Under normal circumstances, longer dated yields should be higher than short-term yields and overnight rates. This logic is straightforward since bond investors expect a higher yield in return for assuming other types of risks like inflation, duration, and credit risks, which are normally not a factor in short term debt securities.
When people get wiped out with no extra money to buy anything with, then the asset owners will get wiped too. I’m not sure government vouchers would be available in that scenario. Maybe they could do another loan forgiveness stimmy plan as you said QE can keep on kicking the can down the road for awhile. All the doom and gloomers that were talking back in September aren’t talking anymore since the huge uptick in everything.
What would cause the 10-year Treasury yield climb above 5%, what is the yield as of today?
The 10 year Treasury is a key indicator! The world is in for a potential world of hurt!!
The article discusses my theories and suppositions regarding the catalysts that would cause the 10-year to rise above 5%.
If it does, all this Trump win relief rally could reverse. The markets have taken off for the very reasons that I was concerned about with a Harris win. Harris has entertained many ideas that would have been destructive to asset prices.
Keep in mind, I am not saying asset prices are going to crater. Rather, I suppose the Fed will engage as before and help asset owners at the expense of those who do not own.
Loan forgiveness and other unilateral benefits would only drive up inflation like what happened with COVID. People are broke, because they can no longer control their impulses. Advanced psychology research has lowered humanity into a population of hopelessly lost consumers slaves.
These consumers will spend everything they can, which will all end up on the balance sheets of the asset owners.
I am not saying to sell anything. Just don’t carry a lot of expensive financing. I have faith the Fed will eventually do what it truly wants to do all along – but more debt. It just needs an excuse (crisis)
Russia’s inflation is so bad that potatoes cost 64% more than they did at the start of the year
•Russia’s economy faces stress as high interest rates fail to control inflation.
•Inflation hits 9.8% in September, with prices of food staples surging this year.
•Business leaders criticize high rates, warning of potential bankruptcies and an economic slowdown.
https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-inflation-potatoes-butter-central-bank-interest-rates-putin-2024-11
Russia’s economy has defied doomsday predictions more than 32 months into its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
But Russia’s red-hot wartime economy comes with a price: inflation, which hit 9.8% in September.
The price hikes are trickling down to basic food items, with prices of potatoes — a Russian staple — surging this year by 64% as of November 5, according to official statistics.