I was asked by a reader why I don’t discuss more of the affairs going on in the Middle East.
This answer straightforward. In terms of the global economic system, it doesn’t mean all that much. So, I don’t get caught up in discussing the affairs of the nation state of Israel, nor any other Middle Eastern nation.
Of course, if that changes, I will report on it. I’m concentrating on CCP China, for instance, because it matters a lot right now. I also discuss the affairs of Russia to the extent that its actions affect the global economic order.
I offer my readers with a unique and more accurate perspective on the US and China trade situation. Of course, this takes a thorough understanding of microeconomic and game theory, which most of all in the alt-media do not possess.
For instance, it was clear to me from the beginning that the ultimate objective was to rid the CCP China from all Western hemispheric affairs. And while there seems to be some collateral damage (e.g. strained relations between Canada and Mexico) I heavily discounted this as the three North American players all have somewhat similar interests and objectives, including national security. In other words, amicable agreements will eventually be reached.
Knowing what I know, I already knew the ultimate objectives of the tariff situation as soon as Trump took office. There’s no Smoot-Hawley stuff and no mistakes. Sure, it looks very clumsy, but it’s essentially game theory at work. The CCP never negotiates in good faith and the American players were banking on it.
For some reason, virtually all the analysts do not understand the players involved. I don’t know why this is the way it is, but I suspect that too many people have too many biases to make the proper analysis.
Joel Skousen, for instance, calls Trump stupid. He thinks Trump is making a mistake. I also doubt Trump is doing this unilaterally.
However, knowing what I know, a lot of what Trump is doing makes sense when it comes to serving the United States best interest in the long term. Of course, I take into account that QE has effectively expired. However, up until covid, QE was very effective. I know the FED can start buying Treasuries again, but this time it will result in inflation.
There is no such thing as fair trade anymore. There never has been when it concerns the entire world. It’s impossible. Any supposed fair trade, whose theories can be traced back to the concepts of Adam Smith, is impossible to implement in practical terms without injuring the one or more of the national players.
What do I mean? When we consider the simple concepts like comparative and absolute advantage, it becomes clear that China has a clear comparative advantage on virtually all manufacturing capabilities when compared to the United States. What’s worse, is that China often has an absolute advantage over the entire world.
Moreover, many of these advantages would be what we consider unfair. I often observe how virtually all Chinese export driven businesses receive favorable funding from their government. That’s why there’s no such thing as fair trade anymore. Fair trade may work when both nations involved have similar philosophies, objectives, and backgrounds, but fair trade does not work when the relationship is fundamentally adversarial.
Fair trade is impossible to implement when the objectives of the nations involved differ as greatly as those of the United States and China.
Unwinding the current arrangement becomes tougher over time as the large corporate players involved have a vested interest in continuing with the status quo, even if that undermines the best interests and national security of one or more of the national players involved.
NY Fed Center for Microeconomic Data
SURVEY OF CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS
March Survey: Inflation Expectations Are Mixed at Short-, Medium-, and Longer-Term Horizons; Labor Market Expectations Decline
•Median inflation expectations increased by 0.5 percentage point (ppt) to 3.6 percent at the one-year-ahead horizon, were unchanged at 3.0 percent at the three-year-ahead horizon, and decreased by 0.1 ppt to 2.9 percent at the five-year-ahead horizon.
•Consumers’ year-ahead expectations about their households’ financial situations deteriorated in March, with the share of households expecting a worse financial situation one year from now rising to 30 percent, the highest level since October 2023.
•Mean unemployment expectations—or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now—jumped by 4.6 ppts to 44.0 percent in March, the highest reading since April 2020.
•The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next twelve months increased by 1.6 ppts to 15.7 percent, the highest level since March 2024. The increase was largest for respondents with annual household incomes below $50,000.
https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/sce#/inflexp-1
The covid scam fulfilled so many objectives. Most importantly and overlooked in the alt-media, from a monetary standpoint, I view the covid scam as effectively destroying QE.
If Donald Trump had made his tariffs overtures prior to QE, few of these things would matter in the big scheme and the Federal Reserve would have a lot of ammunition in which to add Treasuries to its balance sheet.
The problem, post-covid stimulus and Biden fiscal deficit spending, is that now inflation is at a higher base level and whatever the Federal Reserve does will be viewed as inflationary and increasingly desperate.
In this regard, the Obama Biden Communists won. Their effective deployment of the fiscal profligacy outlined in the Cloward-Piven strategy finally subdued Federal government’s fiscal flexibility.
It seems that 2025 is the year that QE effectively expired. I’ve discussed this for a long time that the trajectory since early 2020 had finally placed an expiration date on the monetary program referred to as quantitative easing. I stated it was mid-decade and that 2025 look like a good year.
Now it’s unwinding.
Be the landlord and not the renter.
Jacob’s trouble is coming
https://youtu.be/ztJXZjIp8OA?si=yh7SlHGy8YkgwfpI
He says the right things. There was never any other president, since Ronald Reagan, who would say these things.
Right! Saying the “right” things is what a con artist does also! Their definition of a Christian? One who supports fake Israel.
The devil is forbidden from speaking these things. At least Trump speaks them in a way that no other president since before Reagan was shot by the CIA and Bush ever said.
It’s now a matter of public record. No other Western politicians would ever utter these things and no other Russian oligarch would ever contemplate. Putin and the rest are Soviet to the core.
I take this at face value and that Trump is speaking honestly. The message is both from him and the seat of the White House which I think is telling. I will be waiting for the message from the Pope and the Vatican to compare it.
Popes message from the Hospital:
“I thank you with all my heart for the prayers you offer for my health from [St. Peter’s] Square. I accompany you from here. May God bless you, and may the Virgin protect you. Thank you.”
His message post release:
“Good Sunday to everyone,’’
So far, no mention of Jesus.
Rather interesting. Words are very powerful and Francis is always left wanting.
Matt 24:25 For many shall come in my name, saying, I am Christ; and shall deceive many.”
I would encourage caution here.
Long overdue to have our President bring Jesus Christ back into the picture. The satanists that run the levers in the USA and the world must be pissed at this.
I am worried that Trump could go the way of JFK if he does too many good things for the people and challenges the evil system.
That’s my concern, too. A huge wild card.
As long as Trump does what his handlers say, he’s golden!
On the bright side, someone already tried that… twice.
Yes, indeed.
Amen to that Andre. And this year, which is rare, the Orthodox old calendar Easter celebration falls on the same day.
Despite AAPL shareholders receiving tremendous relief, a base 20% Chinese tariff remains on production with semiconductors. There are no outright exemptions anymore…..
Apple Was on Brink of Crisis Before Tariff Concession From Trump
Apple, these days, sells about 220 million to 230 million iPhones annually, with about a third of those going to the US.
(Bloomberg) — Apple Inc. has managed to dodge its biggest crisis since the pandemic — for the moment, at least.
Donald Trump’s 125% tariffs on goods produced in China threatened to upend its supply chain as seriously as the Covid snarls did five years ago. On Friday night, the US president handed Apple a major victory, exempting many popular consumer electronics. That includes iPhones, iPads, Macs, Apple Watches and AirTags.
Another win: The 10% tariff on goods imported from other countries has been dropped for those products.
While a new, lower so-called sectoral tariff may still come on goods that have semiconductors — and a 20% tariff on China remains — the change marks a win for Apple and a consumer electronics industry that still heavily relies on the Asian nation for manufacturing.
“This is a major relief for Apple,” Evercore ISI analyst Amit Daryanani said in a note on Saturday. “The tariffs would have driven material cost inflation.”
He expects the shares to rally Monday following an 11% rout this month.
Before the latest exemption, the iPhone maker had a plan: adjust its supply chain to make more US-bound iPhones in India, which would have been subject to far lower levies. That, Apple executives believed, would be a near-term solution to avoid the eye-watering China tariff and stave off hefty price hikes.
Given that the iPhone facilities in India are on pace to produce more than 30 million iPhones per year, manufacturing from that country alone could have fulfilled a fair chunk of American demand. Apple, these days, sells about 220 million to 230 million iPhones annually, with about a third of those going to the US.
Such a shift would be difficult to pull off without a hitch, especially because the company is already nearing production of the iPhone 17, which will be made primarily in China. Within Apple’s operations, finance and marketing departments, fears had grown about the impact on the fall launch of new phones — and fueled a sense of dread.
The company, in just a few months, would have needed to pull off the herculean task of moving more iPhone 17 production to India or elsewhere. It likely would have had to increase prices — something that’s still possible — and fought with suppliers for better margins. And Apple’s famous marketing engine would have had to convince consumers it was all worth it.
But the feeling of uncertainty remains. White House policies are likely to shift again, and Apple may need to pursue more dramatic changes. At least for now, though, management is breathing a sigh of relief.
Another concern: If Apple moves even more production from China at a rapid pace, how would the country retaliate? Apple generates about 17% of its revenue from the country and operates dozens of stores, making it an outlier among US-based companies. An Apple spokesman declined to comment.
China has launched competition inquiries into US companies and could create issues for Apple through its own customs process. In recent years, it has also banned iPhones, among other US-designed devices, from its legion of government workers. That followed a US crackdown on Chinese tech champion Huawei Technologies Co.
The iPhone is Apple’s biggest moneymaker, and about 87% of them are produced in China, according to estimates from Morgan Stanley. About four in five iPads also are made in the country, along with 60% of Macs.
All together, those products are responsible for about 75% of Apple’s annual revenue. Still, the company now builds nearly all of its Apple Watches and AirPods in Vietnam. Some iPads and Macs are also manufactured in that country, and Mac production is expanding in Malaysia and Thailand.
The company generates about 38% of its iPad sales in the US, as well as about half its Mac, Apple Watch and AirPods revenue, Morgan Stanley estimates.
A complete split with China — Apple’s manufacturing hub for decades — would be unlikely. Though Trump has pushed Apple to make iPhones in the US, the lack of domestic engineering and manufacturing talent will make that nearly impossible in the short run.
The size and scale of the facilities in China makes it unmatched in speed and efficiency. The China production also is crucial for Apple’s sales in the world beyond the US. The Cupertino, California-based company gets nearly 60% of its revenue outside of the Americas.
Since a wave of tariffs were announced on April 2, lobbyists from Apple and other technology companies have been pushing the White House for exemptions.
But the discussions took on extra urgency in recent days after a series of tit-for-tat retaliations between Washington and Beijing led to what amounted to 145% duties on imports from China.
The potential impact was even more stark after Trump paused higher tariffs on other countries. That meant Apple rival Samsung Electronics Co., which makes its phones outside China, would have had an edge.
Apple and other companies have been stressing to the Trump administration that — while they are willing to increase investment in the US — there’s little benefit in moving final assembly to the country. Instead, they have argued, the US should be focusing on bringing back higher-value jobs and encouraging investment in things like semiconductor production.
©2025 Bloomberg L.P.
Apparently it appears the new fees take effect immediately. I assumed that any tariffs would take a few weeks to start. I just don’t understand how Trumpy can make that annoucementm then a day later the tariffs are added to containers being offloaded onto the ports. All the paper work and computer spreadsheets would need to be modified and create a hardship for companies involved.
Also in the news, not sure when but rumors circulating that many Chinese companies listed on the stock exchange are going to be delisted. I think all of them are hong kong based. Stocks in the China sector are known for huge upticks and then tank under a dollar.
After the cultural revolution, and 40 million plus dead, China apparently looked like a vast market to sell goods to. What a lie! We were never going to have access! We off shored our manufacturing and became their consumer customers. Of course we had to keep the dollar system alive by being a deficit driven economy and China kept it going a while longer. Now we are at the end of the road. A cliff awaits us.
Make that about 80 million under Mao and 100 mm overall. Also, 60 mm in the Soviet Union.
Many eggs must be cracked in order to bring in an obedient Communist utopia.
The Marxists are certainly in control of this age. It is truly maddening how white people have accepted the lies and deception. Trump just appointed an anti Semite czar because why wouldn’t you!
Headline on Panama: Breaking News: U.S. Defense Secretary proposes military presence in Panama as US warships gain canal priority.
12 Apr, 2025 – 16:32
Defense News Army 2025
Citing information published by the U.S. Department of Defense on April 11, 2025, the United States and Panama have entered into a landmark defense agreement that significantly boosts military cooperation and grants U.S. warships and auxiliary vessels “first and free” access through the Panama Canal. The agreement, signed during U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s recent visit to Panama, is being positioned as part of a broader strategy to enhance regional security, strengthen bilateral defense ties, and counter China’s growing influence near one of the world’s most strategic maritime corridors.
Once again..another Trumpy changarooski! Phones, computers are exempt from any future tariffs. I think everyone here can now see what a charade the entire “tariff” event has been. There aren’t any new tariffs. Incredible that the supposed highest office in the nation can get away with this. Not everything is fake, but almost every big event in the mainstream news media has been. ATT, Verizon, Dell, NVDA stock should be up next week after any initial selloffs.
Looks like those items are still tariffed, just not at max levels.
I saw that too. I am thinking that all the tariff hype is just a carnival show. I just read that Trump exempted a whole list of of electronic components made in China.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/trump-exempts-computers-handsets-chips-reciprocal-tariff-blitz
I think the real problem here is that essential electrical components are only made in China and the USA no longer has the manufacturing capability for these parts. This is a really bad sign for the USA in the upcoming war if there will be one as it will take 10 to 15 years to get these factories built. This is a result of our government and big corporations selling the USA down the river. China has the upper hand in manufacturing and Trump realized this at the last minute. No doubt the big executives at Apple, Microsoft, etc arm twisted Trump as well. We will not be very well prepared for WWIII and it was designed this way.
From what I’m reading, there’s still a 20% tariff on these items. It’s not the punitive rates, but higher than before.
This article hits the bulls eye. There never was free and fair trade between the nations especially between the USA and China. The USA was doing all the buying and paying the world’s bills while the USA was going into debt. That can only go on for so long and I think that is ending. The rising bond yields and gold prices are announcing that.
I thought it was stupid to include Mexico in addition to Canada in the NAFTA deal because Mexico has a far different culture and economy than the USA and Canada. They only included Mexico so the big corporations can use cheap labor to manufacture items in Mexico and then ship to the USA. That plan was defeated as every thing became manufactured in China. We have a big sucking sound as Ross Perot said but it comes from China instead of Mexico.
I feel the best economic pact is between the the Anglo Saxon countries like USA, Canada, Australia, and United Kingdom. It is best to do business with your own kind and similar cultures.