Building a rental portfolio without paying taxes
What should one do with a cash out [mortgage loan]? Are they used to buy other properties? If so, how best to do this? Please explain in common terms 😉 Investing jargon is a bit heavy for me. Thank you.
Tim
What makes cash out financing so favorable for RE investors is that all the interest expenses are an above the line deduction, depending on how the proceeds are used. For me, I devote substantially all the loan monies towards my RE portfolio.
I have spent the past two years upgrading my SFR holdings, while getting out of certain areas. I have sold a number of condos in order to buy the same number of houses in areas I feel more comfortable investing. This takes money as I have also been using tax free 1031 exchanges, which allows me to indefinitely defer paying any capital gains taxes, while not having to recognize recaptured depreciation, which is taxed at my marginal tax rate. Depending on the length of time I owned a sold property the size of this accumulated depreciation can be very sizeable.
Through these tax free exchanges, I have not had to pay any cap gains taxes, which would otherwise be six-figures. Maryland has not received a dime from me, since these are MD properties. But this takes money, because I have to fix up the properties I sell, while all the sales proceeds are devoted to the subsequent purchase. Plus, the purchase price of the replacement property is anywhere from $50k to $100k greater than what I get at the sale. Plus, I need more money to fix up the new property to get it rent ready. Thus, I need to raise money to facilitate this process.
So, over the past year I have taken several cash out loans on some of my holdings, while paying off a loan that resets later this year at a rate near 10%. It’s a 180-day SOFR plus 4.5%. That was fine when the Fed funds rates was < 2%, but things have changed. Short term rates will not be falling anytime soon, so I am preparing accordingly.
These DSCR (debt service coverage ratio) loans provide needed liquidity with minimal paperwork and little hassle. The loan is based on the rental income the subject property generates. Since these types of lenders typically only lend to LLCs and other business entities, these loans are not reported to the credit bureaus as long as I pay as intended. This past 12 months I have worked with one lender and they have made the application process easy as they already have all my personal information and are comfortable with my professional background.
Depending on the investor, this money can be many hundreds of thousands of dollars to over a million, and while it’s tempting for less disciplined people to go out and take vacations and buy cars, all of the money is plowed back into the business. My accountant asks me every year what I did with the loan proceeds from the prior year, because the interest I pay on any portion I use for personal use is not tax deductible.
Using a prudent combination of 1031 exchanges, LLC financing, and a CPA who just charged me $4,200 to do my tax returns I pay close to nothing in income taxes every year, yet I live off the cash flow.
This is why I drive around in a 2002 F-150 with an 8′ bed. I live like a pauper and cut my own hair. I wear rags, too. But why should I care what I look like? I’m married.🤣🤣🤣
Bond bullish numbers. Asset market bullish.
Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (YoY) (Apr)
Act: 3.9% Cons: 4.0% Prev: 4.1%
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Apr)
Act: 0.2% Cons: 0.3% Prev: 0.3%
Average Weekly Hours (Apr)
Act: 34.3 Cons: 34.4 Prev: 34.4
Government Payrolls (Apr)
Act: 8.0K Cons: Prev: 72.0K
Manufacturing Payrolls (Apr)
Act: 8K Cons: 5K Prev: -4K
Nonfarm Payrolls (Apr)
Act: 175K Cons: 238K Prev: 315K
Participation Rate (Apr)
Act: 62.7% Cons: Prev: 62.7%
Private Nonfarm Payrolls (Apr)
Act: 167K Cons: 181K Prev: 243K
U6 Unemployment Rate (Apr)
Act: 7.4% Cons: Prev: 7.3%
Unemployment Rate (Apr)
Act: 3.9% Cons: 3.8% Prev: 3.8%
Below is an article from Seeking Alpha. I agree with Bill Gross’s assessment. Bond yields will keep moving higher. Janet Yellen may be trying to suppress long bond yields by emphasizing short-term treasury debt issuance, but the debt deluge will prove too great. Lock in your financing, yields will continue moving higher. This is how the black horse unfolds. We already have the pale horse from the MRNA injection fallout, now we have the Soylent Green scenario black horse. It’s unfolding in real time…
Bond king Bill Gross calls his Total Return strategy ‘dead,’ sees 10Y yield rising above 5%
Famed bond investor Bill Gross says the “Total Return” investment strategy he helped create in the late-80s is “dead.”
The retired co-founder of fixed-income specialist Pacific Investment Management Co. in 1987 built upon his idea to combine interest income with capital gains in bond prices to generate “total return” above current yields.
Gross in an outlook piece released Thursday noted Treasury yields — which move inversely to prices — were running upwards of ~15% when the strategy was launched, higher than current levels, and said he disagrees with investment managers “touting bullish forecasts” of 4.6% for the 10-year Treasury (US10Y) yield.
Gross projected the 10-year yield will rise above 5% over the next 12 months, with prices declining as the government pushes more debt into the market. The U.S. economy to keep expanding “requires fiscal deficits and net increases in Treasury debt of $1T to $2T or more annually,” he said.
“Those that argue for lower rates have to counter the inexorable upward climb in Treasury supply and the likely Sisyphean decline in bond prices. Total Return is dead. Don’t let them sell you a bond fund,” Gross said.
He said for background, Vanguard’s Total Bond Market Index Fund (BND) has produced a negative 0.1% total return over the last five years, including income plus percentage price change.
“Now, however, bond bulls cite 2-3% forward inflation and a Fed cut, two, or three to suggest 10-year yields move to 4% which would produce a 7%+ total return for the balance of 2024. Not gonna happen in my view,” he said.
The black horse scenario of Revelation is not the same as Revelation 13. Revelation 13 is the result of the black horse. The synagogue will provide Revelation 13 as a solution to the black horse. We are currently living the black horse.
Could you please elaborate? I have read the book of Revelation at least three times, but still have many questions and believe it’s more nuanced that I originally thought (and has certainly been manipulated by the pre-tribbers.) I did think that the horses came after the antichrist appeared…or is it actually an antichrist system (that we are in already)? I have heard convincing arguments that, in translation, this book references an antichrist/beast system more than a deceptive reference to a single man who is the antichrist. I also originally thought the mark of the beast would be after the appearance of the antichrist. However, if the antichrist is a beast system (and not a single man), then it might be fair to say that the mark of the beast has already appeared in the jab, perhaps as a two part system, the second being needed for the upcoming CBDC to buy, sell, trade. However, given the self-assembling nanotech and graphine in the stratospheric aerosol injections (a.k.a. chemtrails), and food, water – because they are determined to get the vax in everyone – I surmise that even the unvaxed are becoming transhuman (like the vaxed), just at a slower rate, and developing their own WBAN’s. I have no doubt the Synagogue of Satan – the same demons that brought about the Holodomor, the Bolshevik revolution, the fire bombing of Dresden (and according to Gary Wayne, sponsored attempts at the Antichrist before its ordained time) – is now facilitating another version of the black horse. Look at the many food suppliers burned to the ground since the beginning of the scamdemic. Here are some references below if anyone’s interested. Thanks for your thoughts.
List of destroyed food facilities https://nemosnewsnetwork.com/here-is-the-updated-list-of-us-based-food-manufacturing-plants-destroyed-under-biden-regime-interactive-map/
Why most people are transhuman https://theserapeum.com/why-most-people-are-already-transhuman-the-vax-is-just-one-reason/
The Antichrist Investigation https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BrUVRxUoJy4
https://www.geoengineeringwatch.org
In order for the world to accept the mark, the proper tableau must be established beforehand.
There have been two unique and unprecedented circumstances of the past few years that I suspect are the facilitators to help establish this tableau; the MRNA injection bioweapon campaign and the willfully ignorant Central Bank monetary policy in the wake of covid.
Everything about the black horse as described in Revelation can easily be manifested with a regime of ever higher bond yields and interest rates. Imagine the ever-increasing sense of desperation with the average person. If bond yields continue to creep up and inflation remains resilient, the metaphorical vice will continually tighten as the months and years drag on this decade.
Life will become so unbearable for most of the profane and unprepared people on the planet that they will continually resort to ever more drastic means to maintain their lifestyles and life.
With regard to the bio weapon injections, I am coming across more and more individuals in my inner circle who are struggling with sad chronic medical conditions that cannot be solved. The bioweapon campaign has been very effective in creating a huge population of people who are just getting sicker by the month. Life for so many people continues to circle lower and lower and they don’t even know it. They don’t even know what’s wrong. Most of them are in denial, complete denial.
The results of the two unique sets of circumstances has helped put in motion a timeline that is very clear to me and one in which has only one outcome. When we combine the upcoming force majeure, which is a global war outlined by the Old Testament prophets, we are looking at complete catastrophe for most people in the developed world. This will especially be true when we consider the Nations that have traditionally been of European Caucasian descent.
The problem with most eschatological prognosticators is that they know very little about economics and financial system Dynamics. They also refuse to discuss the elephant in the room, the Jew synagogue perpetrators.
Unfortunately, the circumstances described in Revelation and the catalysts that lead to the promotion of the mark will all be economically and financially driven. To me, this time line seems like the only logical outcome. I suspect that these circumstances will grind for at least several more years and wear out the people until they’ll accept anything. They’ll accept the Antichrist, they’ll accept his answers, they’ll accept his solutions, they’ll accept whatever he says. They’ll even think he’s a god.
The Great Reset reset is the Great Tribulation, because no true remnant Christian will be able to survive on the other side. A survivor will have to make too many compromises that will mean losing one’s soul.
The mark itself may not be what ruins a person’s health and life. But the mark may represent what a person would have to do in order to receive the mark. In this instance, I submit that in order to receive the mark we will have to take a set of injections that would cause grievous sores and debilitations. The technology is already here, as we saw in the MRNA injections. future injections will have the capability of working to rewrite a person’s DNA. The rewriting could be enough to preclude him or her entering the kingdom.
But the circumstances involving the pale and black horses, if given enough time, will persuade most of the world to accept the solution.
Tom are you still taking the MSM? Also with the markets what are your thoughts on oil here?
I still take the MSM. It works. I kind of forget about the positive effects it has, but if I stopped taking it I know my joints would hurt more. I can still do fairly strenuous workouts of pull-ups, chin ups, push-ups and dips, ab and oblique crunches, as well as squats. If I didn’t take MSM and the other supplements I take, I wouldn’t be able to do these things.
If you’re asking my opinion on the markets, they basically go in the direction of the level of fiscal deficit spending. If the amount of US Treasuries in circulation continues to escalate, the asset markets have only one way to go, and that is up. I key in on the level of sovereign debt outstanding and the direction of its trajectory. At least we know what to look at.
There are a lot of things worse than death.
I also know a lot of people with cancer and various other illness, most likely related to the mrna injections or at least some other environmental exposure. Its a multi-faceted attack and nobody can really hide from this. If you could hide from it completely, there is probably some psychosomatic aspect to your life situation that would cause a cancer to manifest if you didn’t face it and deal with it.
Either way, the medical complex has ready cures and solutions. Just accepting those and taking them into yourself is probably in some form accepting the mark. Even when you think you win, you lose.
Canst thou draw out leviathan with an hook?
I was just over at a camp I grew up going to in the 70’s it was affiliated with the Evangelical Covenant Church. I go over there because its on a lake and a good place to walk and reminisce. The camp hosts different groups. I was looking at the bumper stickers on some of the cars.
One says ” Im a powerful f- ing women” another one with all the different religious symbols and says “Prays well together” one says “We welcome immigrants” and a few with the 🌈 stickers. It’s sad but we are done there is no going back.
That’s right. It’s over with as we know it. There is no going back and when we realize this, we can begin to make a difference in our lives and for those who wish to listen.
In order for humanity to be saved, there needs to be a second Exodus; there needs to be a great washing and many of us have been contaminated, too. Even I’ve gotten too soft. It’s a lot harder for me to do things and sometimes I wish I had the energy of a 30-year-old. I’m nearly double that age now.
I conflate Revelation 12 with the second Exodus just before Jesus’s return.
Unit labor costs come in much higher than consensus. Inflation will continue to rage for years. Green and racial equality objectives are draining finances and confidence.
Continuing Jobless Claims
Act: 1,774K Cons: 1,800K Prev: 1,774K
Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q1)
Act: 4.7% Cons: 3.6% Prev: 0.4%
Exports
Act: 257.60B Cons: Prev: 263.00B
Imports
Act: 327.00B Cons: Prev: 331.90B
Initial Jobless Claims
Act: 208K Cons: 212K Prev: 208K
Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.
Act: 210.00K Cons: Prev: 213.50K
Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) (Q1)
Act: 0.3% Cons: 0.8% Prev: 3.5%
Trade Balance (Mar)
Act: -69.40B Cons: -69.50B Prev: -69.50B
After a respite from April income tax collection, UST debt outstanding takes a huge jump overnight and moves to another all-time high.
Social and racial justice can be very expensive. We’re all the same. 🤣🤣🤣
https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/debt-to-the-penny/debt-to-the-penny
It is very costly and a waste of resources to be the same. People who buy into the multi culturalist guilt trip are the suckers.
I received this email from a reader. He quotes a particular article, whose link is below. Of course, I don’t endorse any thing in particular, but pass it along to the other readers…
“There is so much effort in persuading people to think there is nothing you can do, and it’s hopeless. Let me tell you something . . . the central bankers are telling you what they are going to do, and this is not far away in the future. You have all these merchant codes where you cannot use your credit card to buy a gun or the bank throws you out. That’s the control grid getting built.”
What can you do to fight for freedom? CAF says, “Bring transparency, and the second thing is to use cash. If we can all use cash, build cash back up and keep checks going, if you have cash and checks, they cannot go to an all-digital financial system. Find out who is leading the way in your state, and see what you can do to support them.
Above anything, you can pray because this is a spiritual war. The devil wants you to believe it’s hopeless and there is nothing you can do. . . . It’s not true. The sane cannot go along with the insane. The divine cannot go along with the demonic. You have to say NO! I am seeing this all over the country. I am seeing Treasurers and State Attorney Generals, and they are all pushing back because they realize this is insane. You cannot go along with this.”
https://www.2ndsmartestguyintheworld.com/p/insane-vs-sane-demonic-vs-divine?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=400535&post_id=144096172&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=false&r=ems7f&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email
PFE drugs approved to treat conditions caused by their mRNA injections help power revenue and earnings…
Trending: Pfizer 1Q Earnings Top Estimates; Raises FY24 View
Pfizer is one of the most mentioned companies in the U.S. across all news items in the past 12 hours, according to Factiva data.
The New York-based biopharmaceutical firm said first-quarter earnings were $3.12 billion, or 55 cents a share, and adjusted earnings came in at 82 cents a share, eclipsing the average analyst estimate of 51 cents. Revenue fell 20%, to $14.88 billion, but easily surpassed the average Wall Street estimate of $13.88 billion. Chairman and Chief Executive Albert Bourla said sales of Covid-19 treatment Paxlovid fell, but demand for blood thinner Eliquis and oncology products such as Ibrance, Xtandi, Padcev and Adcetris bolstered sales. For 2024, Pfizer raised its adjusted earnings per share outlook to $2.15 to $2.35 and said it continues to expect revenue of $58.5 billion to $61.5 billion.
Wealthy white Louisiana residents win right to split from Baton Rouge and form their own city
A group of wealthy white Baton Rouge residents have won a decades-long battle to split from the majority-black city to form their own suburb following a state Supreme Court ruling.
https://nypost.com/2024/04/29/us-news/wealthy-white-louisiana-residents-split-from-baton-rouge-to-form-their-own-city/amp/
I completely understand why these residents want to split from a city with a majority of blacks.
I see from my experience that when blacks, Latinos, or any other non- whites run the show there is tons of corruption and mismanagement.
Look at these cities with black mayors where they overspend on poor public service and jack up taxes. Areas with a majority of blacks and Latinos have much higher crime.
Look at the African countries with corrupt dictatorships. Latin America has the same problem.
The countries with mostly whites tend to be cleaner and more organized. Look at Iceland, Norway, and Finland.
I don’t care if I sound racist but facts are facts.
Lock in your investment financing. I locked in over $1mm over the past 18 mos. b/w 6.25-7.75%. All 30-year fixed.
Employment Benefits (QoQ) (Q1)
Act: 1.10% Cons: Prev: 0.70%
Employment Cost Index (QoQ) (Q1)
Act: 1.2% Cons: 1.0% Prev: 0.9%
Employment Wages (QoQ) (Q1)
Act: 1.10% Prev: 1.10%
Holy moly! Hard data that backup my anecdotal observations. Take a look at that FHFA data. Those are eye-popping numbers and generally reflect the prices of working class properties… To all those Loodiceans out there (the once saved always saved dummies), remember Tuesdays are Soylent Green days.
More areas in the country will be friendlier to people living in their vans down by the river. Of course, those vans will be EVs. Don’t fight government spending, which is being deployed to re-engineer your mind and lifestyle. Stop worrying and learn to love deficit spending… 🤣🤣🤣
FHFA House Price Index (MoM) (Feb)
Act: 1.2% Cons: 0.1% Prev: -0.1%
FHFA House Price Index (YoY) (Feb)
Act: 7.0% Cons: Prev: 6.5%
S&P/CS HPI Composite – 20 s.a. (MoM) (Feb)
Act: 0.6% Cons: Prev: 0.2%
S&P/CS HPI Composite – 20 n.s.a. (MoM) (Feb)
Act: 0.9% Cons: Prev: -0.1%
S&P/CS HPI Composite – 20 n.s.a. (YoY) (Feb)
Act: 7.3% Cons: 6.7% Prev: 6.6%
It is very interesting how the mainstream media is highlighting stories of those choosing living in a van and loving it. They are conditioning the masses to enjoy living on a lot less. Soylent green here we come.
The only economically positive data coming out this morning was the PMI manufacturing which came out at 50.0. The rest of the data dump were NG, which is yield curve bullish.
Jerome Powell is all over the map during his press conference. Hemming and hawing, he can’t seem to make up his mind. The FED does not have inflation under control, yet it is deciding to push forward with the needed taper, with as much as a reduction of $35 billion dollars a month. Monetary policy is definitely not restrictive enough given the acceleration and asset prices to the upside.
Own the income generating assets.
PRESS RELEASES
Treasury Announces Marketable Borrowing Estimates
April 29, 2024
https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy2304
WASHINGTON – The U.S. Department of the Treasury today announced its current estimates of privately-held net marketable borrowing[1] for the April – June 2024 and July – September 2024 quarters.
During the April – June 2024 quarter, Treasury expects to borrow $243 billion in privately-held net marketable debt, assuming an end-of-June cash balance of $750 billion.[2] The borrowing estimate is $41 billion higher than announced in January 2024, largely due to lower cash receipts, partially offset by a higher beginning of quarter cash balance.[3]
During the July – September 2024 quarter, Treasury expects to borrow $847 billion in privately-held net marketable debt, assuming an end-of-September cash balance of $850 billion.
During the January – March 2024 quarter, Treasury borrowed $748 billion in privately-held net marketable debt and ended the quarter with a cash balance of $775 billion. In January 2024, Treasury estimated borrowing of $760 billion and assumed an end-of-March cash balance of $750 billion. Privately-held net marketable borrowing was $12 billion lower largely because higher cash receipts and lower outlays were partially offset by a $25 billion higher ending cash balance.
Additional financing details relating to Treasury’s Quarterly Refunding will be released at 8:30 a.m. on Wednesday, May 1, 2024.
“Beggar thy neighbour” policy at its finest. I think Japan wants this problem….
Yen Watchers Ask Where Is Japan as Currency Losses Accelerate
(Bloomberg) — The yen has tumbled well past levels touted as red lines for Japan and at a pace that has traders asking when authorities might start buying the currency to support it — and why they haven’t already done so.
The currency fell to a 34-year low against the dollar Friday after the Bank of Japan indicated financial conditions will remain easy, with losses accelerating in late trading in New York. A public holiday in Japan on Monday may reduce liquidity in foreign-exchange markets and heighten the risk of further sharp moves in either direction.
Policymakers have repeatedly warned that depreciation won’t be tolerated if it goes too far too fast and Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki reiterated after the BOJ meeting that the government would respond appropriately to foreign-exchange moves. Earlier this month he also flagged concerns over the yen’s decline to US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, which market participants saw as laying the groundwork for intervention.
Top currency official Masato Kanda has given an example of a 10-yen move over one month as a rapid one. Japan’s currency has weakened by about 7 yen per dollar over the last month, but it fell over 2% last week alone and is down more than 10% year-to-date.
“Authorities may say they don’t target levels per se, but they do pay close attention to the trend and the rate of change and current levels suggest they have to act soon or risk facing a credibility crisis,” said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone Group Ltd. “The FX market is almost taking them on like the bond vigilantes of old.”
One reason for Japan’s seeming reluctance to act may be that intervention alone cannot alter the wide gulf in interest rates that’s in part driving the yen’s decline. While the BOJ has brought local rates out of negative territory, they are still far from levels that would tempt investors from the higher yields on offer in the US and other countries.
Bank of Japan’s Stand Pat Decision Fuels Further Yen Jitters
Strategists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. say the global macroeconomic background points to further yen weakness and that may make it tough for intervention to succeed.
“Our baseline outlook of solid growth, gradual policy adjustments and upside risks to forward rates is a very negative mix for the yen,” wrote a team including Kamakshya Trivedi, the head of global currency, rates and emerging-market strategy. “The only question then is the extent to which Japan policymakers will push against yen depreciation, but we think the tools are limited.”
Still, the risk of intervention will rise materially if the yen continues to underperform other assets like it did on Friday, the Goldman strategists added. The currency fell 1.7% that day, the most in six months, to around 158.30 per dollar.
It’s also the case that a weaker yen is not necessarily that bad for Japan, says Deutsche Bank AG’s global head of foreign-exchange research, George Saravelos. The currency’s decline isn’t causing an inflation problem and is pushing up the value of overseas assets held by Japanese investors, he wrote in an emailed note.
During a press conference after Friday’s BOJ policy decision, Governor Kazuo Ueda played down the impact of the weak yen on inflation, saying the exchange rate continues to benefit the economy by boosting demand.
“Japan is following a policy of benign neglect for the yen,” Saravelos said Friday. “The possibility of intervention can’t be ruled out if the market turns disorderly, but it is also notable that Governor Ueda played down the importance of the yen in his press conference today as well as signaling no urgency to hike rates.”
Trading Strategy
For their part, traders seem to be positioned against a successful intervention by Japan. In the run-up to the BOJ meeting, combined bets by hedge funds and asset managers on the currency’s weakness reached the most on record according to Commodity Futures Trading Commission data going back to 2006. Meanwhile, angst is rising, as evidenced in a jump in measures of implied volatility for the pair last week.
While being short the Japanese currency at current levels is risky, bearish speculators will likely be planning to buy dollar-yen again at lower levels should officials act, said Pepperstone’s Weston.
“I can imagine hedge funds setting algo’s with limit orders 400-500 pips under spot to capture an intervention move,” he said. “Naturally, in the belief that any sharp dip will come back quickly.”
It could have been worse….
Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Mar)
Act: 2.8% Cons: 2.6% Prev: 2.8%
Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Mar)
Act: 0.3% Cons: 0.3% Prev: 0.3%
PCE Price index (YoY) (Mar)
Act: 2.7% Cons: 2.6% Prev: 2.5%
PCE price index (MoM) (Mar)
Act: 0.3% Cons: 0.3% Prev: 0.3%
Personal Income (MoM) (Mar)
Act: 0.5% Cons: 0.5% Prev: 0.3%
Personal Spending (MoM) (Mar)
Act: 0.8% Cons: 0.6% Prev: 0.8%
Real Personal Consumption (MoM) (Mar)
Act: 0.5% Cons: Prev: 0.5%
Yesterday’s M2 announcement showed a marginal increase in the money supply. It’s clearly evident that M2 has plateaued at a much higher level post-covid.
https://www.terminaleconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/M2-April-24.jpg
Inflation is indeed picking up and it’s not just anecdotal. We can clearly see that the velocity continues to gain steam post covid nadir. Investors and consumers of the USD are less willing to hold on to it and are more anxious to get rid of the ones they have. If this consumer behavior continues, fed can do very little at this point to fight inflation.
https://www.terminaleconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/M2-velocity-April-24.jpg
Whatever… Trump supporters will back anything this goy clown says….
Trump Advisers Discuss Penalties for Nations That Move Away From the Dollar
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-advisers-discuss-penalties-nations-213042538.html
I was recently asked by a reader what I thought regarding the growing problems with property and casualty insurance underwriting. Specifically, he was referring to the exploding insurance premium costs for homeowners in many areas of the country as well as policy cancellations by the insurer.
Obviously, we hear about the problems in Florida and California, but the problems are definitely spreading.
I told him there will be an eventual solution and it will involve the government. Of course, everything involves the government at the end, which is the desired result. What I theorize is a mechanism in the property and casualty insurance industry that would be similar to what we see today in the mortgage industry or health insurance sector.
I envision the establishment of an entity or agency similar to Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac corporation or a Medicare-type mechanism. Insurance underwriters would underwrite policies and then much of the risk would be shifted to a government backed agency that would then handle the risk of the policies in a manner similar to what Fannie Mae does.
There could also be some sort of agency that would handle insurance in a way similar to what Medicare does for health insurance. Without either of these agencies in mortgages and health insurance, their respective industries would be in total chaos.
Something similar will have to be established for property insurance as well and it will have to transcend state laws, as the individual states currently administrator and enforce insurance laws. This will also have to be something more elaborate and comprehensive than the current FEMA flood insurance scheme.
Here is a Bloomberg article from yesterday that discusses how Fannie and Freddie are demanding a solution to the insurance underwriting problem.
Florida’s Home Insurance Industry May Be Worse Than Anyone Realizes
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-04-24/home-insurance-with-lax-oversight-hides-florida-climate-risk
This is really a ploy for government takeover of the insurance business and also healthcare. Once government takes over everything especially healthcare then you will not get served unless you are up to date on your vaccine shots.
There will be complete government control of all services and therefore government control of your life. Be prepared for that.
Andrei, that is exactly what I was about to say but you beat me to it.
I saw this in CA when PG&E was under the microscope for the fires. Newscum radically overhauled the BOD after that. I said then that PG&E was going to be a state owned utility company, and any searches you do now implying that, suggests I’m not too far off in my thinking.
On the other side of the force majeure (war) that’s exactly what we’ll see. Take your shots like a good piece piece of goy livestock. Don’t talk back.
Anyone in Northern Virginia will be able to see the all out chemtrails spraying. Here’s a video of the sky as I walk my dog this morning. Clearly it’s not commercial Jets as they are all flying in a parallel pattern. The commercial jets fly much further below.
https://www.terminaleconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/20240424_085820.mp4
I watched the video you posted. I admire Vernon Coleman – he is one of the few doctors who keeps speaking out, despite heavy censorship, and personal and professional repercussions, and he has never monetized his work. Early on in the scamdemic he warned about the vax, and I emailed his videos to everyone I knew (most didn’t listen). He has some books on his website I will probably buy, especially Coming Apocalypse. https://www.vernoncoleman.com/main.htm
I’ve known for a while our government wants us dead, and I guess as a Christian, this makes me (and you, and no doubt your readers) a terrorist (?)
https://www.lewrockwell.com/2024/04/no_author/72-types-of-americans-that-are-considered-potential-terrorists-in-official-government-documents/
The more I learn of our history, the more I realize nothing changes. Highly recommend this prophetic book, based on scripture and written by a Christian historian, Gary Wayne.
https://genesis6conspiracy.com
And take a look at this video I began watching called Hellstorm on the merciless bombing of Dresden – no doubt the SOS trying to destroy Menasseh (then and now in various ways, and we may arrive at another Dresden experience again).
https://rumble.com/v4qau7r-hellstorm-documentary-and-josephus-and-roman-deception.html
It’s only by the grace and protection of God that we are here right now.
Thanks for being a fellow truth speaker in these end of times. God be with you.
It’s been a long time analysis of this blog that Ephraim and Manasseh are two brothers who are closely related in these last and final days, which in this particular instance, is currently over the past 300 to 400 years. There are only two nations today that fulfill the descriptions given on Jacob’s deathbed and are also congruent with their behaviors when they were aligned in the northern kingdom.
These two nations are closely joined at the hip, they were once one living together, but Manasseh fought on its own terms and founded its own nation, independent of his brother.
These descriptions have little to do with what these countries look like today, but rather, what they were like when they were founded. Britain was the first Christian nation going back to the first and second century AD, when Paul and Joseph of Arimathea first preached the gospel in present-day Britain. The British (meaning “covenant man” in ancient Hebrew) people there immediately dropped their pagan religions and began to follow the Gospel. Ephraim’s brother was prophesied to become the most important and influential single nation the world had ever seen in the last days. I think we know what that nation is. That’s the United States as of the 17th through 19th century. It’s influence still carries today, but is unfortunately become a muddy golem of the synagogue of Satan.
These two brothers share a common heritage, for without Britain there would be no United States, at least in the form it took. They both share a common language, and according to the deathbed promises, their influence would span the globe, which would include possessing the universal language, form of law that would eventually prevail around the world (common law), while their power and influence would be unrivaled. They both share diplomatic powers that have been envied by their enemies for centuries. The universal language is not German, German law does not prevail around the world, Germany never had the influence that Britain had colonizing the world, nor did Germany ever present itself as a diplomatic power. Indeed, Germany today is part of a union and has relinquished most of its sovereignty.
There’s a reason why Britain refuses to join the EU. There’s a reason why Britain considers itself part of Oceania and sides with the United States and the rest of the Commonwealth. It’s in the collective DNA. Anyone who tells you we’re all the same and it’s just skin color is full of stupidity. It’s in every fiber of my being.
Two brothers joined at the hip, yet one separates at the last days. They remain friends and close allies. Ephraim spans the globe as we speak and its Commonwealth is spread to all four corners of the globe. Britain is just a small country in size, but has been unrivaled in stature. Both the United States and Britain have never lost a war that meant a loss of sovereignty.
This will change during Jacob’s trouble later in the decade. This is the war prophesied by Ezekiel. This is not Armageddon.
Ephraim and Manasseh; the British Commonwealth and the United States. It will be a time of Jacob’s trouble when both nations are subdued in World War 3.
If you think the United States is evil, just wait until its Gog and Magog adversaries prevail in the first blow of World war 3. You’ll be wishing for the United States to resurrect itself. Ephraim and Manasseh. The two greatest nations the world has ever seen since Jesus. No other nations come close to fulfilling these particular last day prophecies. The rest of Northern and Western Europe are also remnants of the Northern kingdom. They just never were able to fulfill the promises given to Ephraim and Manasseh. I don’t make this complicated, anyone with an objective eye cannot make a sound contrary argument.
Jacob’s trouble will be coming this decade. If you’re unable to properly identify the true Israel, the world will be nothing but confusion.
The synagogue knows much more about prophecy than today’s Christian. The bankers know all about Britain and the USA. That’s why the British Pound and the USD were the two truly global currencies. The power these nations possessed were God given, as God fulfilled his promise to Jacob. This has nothing to do with any present day virtue. Hosea said these prophecies would still be fulfilled though we wouldn’t know it (or anyone younger than 60 won’t believe it). Either way, the prophecy proved correct. The Jew synagogue knows all about it. God held up his end of the bargain. We certainly did nothing to earn it.
Thanks for your insights. In your assessment, will the Gog and Magog event (Jacob’s trouble) of Ezekiel 38 and 39 be the Great Tribulation?
And the Great Tribulation (which you state is also the Great Reset) – is that when they will institute CBDC, having finally destroyed the supremacy of the dollar and the pound that you write about?
I mentioned the complete destruction of Dresden (and shared the documentary called Hellstorm – actual footage and historical corrections) in the context of our possible future, surmising it was orchestrated by the same Synagogue of Satan that also told us the mass graves of the concentration camps were of the jews, when they were actually Germans killed after the war in open air camps. The relentless fire bombing of Dresden killed almost everyone and destroyed everything.
In context of the twelve tribes of Isreal (which you have described) these germanic people were of those tribes and were deeply hated by the SOS, probably because of their rich culture and their humanity (Dresden being only one example). The history of these people – and our own history – has been completely subverted. An excellent series is Our Subverted History by Asha Logos. It should be required watching, IMO (but won’t be while the SOS is in charge). https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eOM2fT6tBFE&list=PLru9zi8j7G3Nsz03pkBzFdv_1tRxdCMJo&index=1
History seems to go in cycles, and you have to sift through the lies and the subversion to try to begin to understand the truth… And I agree with your assessment on how bad it will quite likely become, judging from the past and also judging from prophesy. (Revelation 9:6)
Thanks again for sharing your thoughts.
This Great War, which is described in fine detail in the Old Testament, has never taken place as of now. Never in recorded history have these sides ever appeared in battle. Russians know who they are. Tobolsk was the Siberian capital and Meshech is Moscow. Don’t bother doing a Google search anymore as history has been scrubbed clean. Up until a generation or so ago, this was common knowledge even in russia. I believe there are still statues standing that are dedicated to their Japheth descendants.
The Japheth lineage still hates the Shem lineage as this goes back to Noah, who blessed Japheth through the God of Shem. Present-day japheth has an ax to grind. Present-day Japheth remnants settled in Western Russia, Central Asia, and Siberia. This includes Mongolia and outer Mongolia in China. If we are to properly identify the enemy outlined in ezekiel’s Great War, then we are to include China as well and perhaps the indo-aryans of India. It certainly includes Persia and the Islamic countries as well. They are strategizing and conspiring as we speak and instead of pretending to fight, they will come to destroy.
This will be the time of Jacob’s trouble and Western Europe as well as Britain, the Commonwealth, and the United States will simultaneously for the first time find itself on the losing end. This Great War will kick off the tribulation period. The true Israel will be subdued and God will finally begin to reveal himself. Jeremiah’s prophecy was written long after the northern kingdom was dispersed.
Up until the moment the bombs start dropping in the US and Western Europe as well as Britain and the Commonwealth, the people living in these countries will be completely out of touch and clueless as to the severity of their circumstances. This is not Armageddon. That’s another future War.
I’m familiar with the fire bombing of Dresden. I came across several experts over the past couple decades that indicated the spear of destiny and other vital artifacts were in Dresden. Whoever ordered the fire bombing of Dresden wanted to destroy for a particular reason.
Bond Traders Look to Record Auction for Sign 5% Yield Is Peak
(Bloomberg) — With Treasuries on track for their worst month this year, a hefty slate of auctions looms as a major test of whether yields have peaked after reaching the highest levels of 2024.
Investors are bracing for a tricky week, even beyond the risk of further volatility because of tensions in the Mideast. The market must absorb a combined $183 billion calendar of two-, five- and seven-year note sales — the first two of which will be at record levels — before a crucial inflation reading at the end of the week that will help shape expectations for the Federal Reserve’s path.
There’s already a strong indication that investors want to buy after yields surged this month on signs of a resilient economy, which led traders to push out bets on Fed interest-rate cuts to late 2024. The latest leg of the Treasuries selloff briefly pushed the two-year rate above 5% after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled last week that the central bank is in no hurry to ease policy.
Now that 5% level looks like the magic number for bond managers seeking to put to money to work in short maturities. For Jack McIntyre at Brandywine Global Investment Management, the message from Powell reinforces the sense that a bottom may be in for Treasury prices.
“A Fed that sticks to their guns and says, ‘We are going to break inflation,’ means there’s a top in yields,” the portfolio manager said. “Yields will spike higher if the Fed backs off too soon and cuts.”
‘Almost There’
The two-year note ended last week at about 4.99%, so Tuesday’s auction has a chance to obtain a coupon of at least 5% on the maturity for the first time since last year. Before then, investors hadn’t seen such levels in more than a decade.
“A 5% coupon at the two-year auction is possible, we’re almost there,” said Michael Cudzil, a portfolio manager at Pacific Investment Management Co.
“The market has taken out a lot of cuts and it is reasonably priced at this point in time for a decent range of outcomes,” he said. Pimco has been adding more interest-rate exposure, with a preference for the front-end and the five- to seven-year area in Treasuries, he said.
Of course, there’s the risk that yields keep climbing across the curve toward the peaks of October, when yields on some maturities eclipsed 5%.
That’s where Friday’s report on the personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, comes in. The data is projected to show the annual rate rose to 2.6% last month, from 2.5% in February, which would suggest progress toward the Fed’s 2% goal has stalled. Traders are on notice after March consumer-price data came in hotter than forecast.
Still, there’s ample evidence of demand emerging. Last week’s 20-year auction, which brought yields at the second-highest level on record, was well received. And the latest client survey from JPMorgan Chase & Co. showed investors were net long on Treasuries by the most in several weeks.
Investors also have in mind that the return of a 5% two-year coupon last year presented a buying opportunity. The yield subsequently dipped below 4.15% in January as the market bet on rate cuts as early as March.
And while traders now expect the Fed to wait until the fourth quarter to cut, the likelihood of at least some easing this year suggests there’s scope for price appreciation in the new two- and five-year benchmarks.
“The two-year is attractive around 5%, despite being lower than bill yields and the stronger-than-expected CPI prints, as the Fed’s base case continues to be to cut rates,” said Priya Misra, a portfolio manager at J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
Bond investors see another potential source of demand for two-year notes at 5%: money market funds. The pile of cash in these funds tumbled in the last weekly data, dropping below $6 trillion, a move that was likely related to tax payments.
But as the two-year rate approaches bill yields that are currently closer to the Fed’s 5.25% to 5.5% range, retail investors may start to see the appeal of locking in these levels until 2026.
“The process of shifting from cash to some part of fixed income probably goes in stages and starts with a move into shorter maturities first,” said Brandywine’s McIntyre.
What to Watch
Economic data:
April 22: Chicago Fed national activity index
April 23: Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing index; S&P Global US manufacturing and services PMI; new home sales; Richmond Fed manufacturing index and business conditions
April 24: MBA mortgage applications; durable goods orders; capital goods orders
April 25: GDP; advance goods trade balance; initial jobless claims; retail, wholesale inventories; pending home sales; Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity
April 26: Personal income and spending; PCE deflator; U. of Mich sentiment survey and inflation expectations; Kansas City Fed services activity
Fed calendar:
No speakers scheduled before April 30-May 1 meeting
Auction calendar:
April 22: 13-, 26-week bills
April 23: 42-day CMB; Two-year notes
April 24: 17-week bills; two-year floating-rate notes; five-year notes
April 25: 4-, 8-week bills; seven-year notes
©2024 Bloomberg L.P.
Can you comment on the new real estate commission laws, and how you anticipate it will affect buying and selling real estate in the future, if at all? Thanks for your insights.
I don’t see any efforts by the RE brokerage industry nor government agencies to want to change the existing payout structure; at least, not yet. it’s still business as usual. I know that agents I talk to don’t seem to care.
I would never pay full commission, which is between 5-6%. For my last five sales transactions over the past year, I have used Redfin, which charges 1.5% on their side. That comes out to 4%, with 2.5% going to the buyer agent. The discount brokers like Redfin are the only true game changers to the industry so far.
As long as the existing way of home transactions prevails, nothing will change, except with some wording modifications in purchase/sale agreements.
However, the lawsuit settlement could be the catalyst to upend how transactions are facilitated in the future. Why? I ask myself, how long will sellers be willing to part with 5-6% of proceeds as house prices continue to reach ever higher highs? A $1mm home sale experiences $50-60k in commissions. That’s nonsense and one primary reason why people aren’t selling. Total transaction costs for a $1mm home in many jurisdictions are reaching $100k. It’s usually at least 10-12% when a mortgage is involved in the sale and the seller subsequently purchases a new property. As house price to household income multiples continue to increase, the cost burdens rise to exorbitant and nonsensical levels.
I believe the NAR lawsuit was a result of people’s frustrations with these escalating costs. If the government truly wants to encourage people to sell, it needs to completely revamp the entire transaction process, which includes slashing transaction taxes and fees. The tax jurisdictions have been relying on these revenue streams to meet their fiscal budget goals.
Something has to change and the fees and costs in the states are too high. Maybe counties could raise sales taxes 1% and slash RE transaction costs across the board. That’s just a thought, but the RE cost structure is determined at the local level. Making large scale changes would be like herding cats.
Thanks for these thoughts. It sounds like you have done well selling through Redfin… Would you also recommend them for buying real estate? ( Is there an advantage using Redfin as a buyer, or only as a seller because of reduced commissions?) I did check out their site, and it looks to have much the same information as other listing sites for buyers. I am wondering, what website do you use/recommend to find houses for purchase? And do you go through a traditional realtor to do so? And do you have any thoughts on whether it’s better to sign up with a buyer’s realtor to “respresent” you as a buyer (seems like a nice way to characterize a middle-man) vs. just going directly to the seller’s realtor, and if the later, would you recommend finding your own real estate attorney to represent you and help you process the purchasing paperwork? And finally, when you do your like-kind exchanges, are you using Redfin for both selling and buying transactions, or is that just something that you deal with an accountant on separately? Thanks again!
For the past decade or so, I have not used a buyer agent, but have either contacted the listing agent and chose dual agency, if they took it, or represented myself as a customer and reduced my purchase price by a couple percentage points from my offer.
If there is no buyer agency nor dual agency in a particular transaction, in most states, the listing broker is forbidden from taking both sides of the commission. The listing agent would usually just then negotiate with the seller to take half plus another half point for writing up all the paperwork. This usually means 3% as opposed to 5%.
I don’t have any recommendation for any particular buyer broker, but you could try using Redfin, which will take 1.5% commission and negotiate with the listing agent to reduce the purchase price by 1%.
Redfin also promotes a program in which it will reduce its buyer agency broker fee to 1%, if a seller uses Redfin and then subsequently uses them as a buyer agent in a future offsetting purchase. I think there is 90 days or 180 days. I’m not quite certain. That might be something you could look into as Redfin can negotiate any subsequent purchase price after a Redfin sponsored sale by 1.5% lower.
Understand that if someone takes the route I take and effectively represents himself if there is no dual agency, that comes with consequences. I basically have nobody representing me and I must go through all of the contract work myself. The listing agent is definitely not going to be very cooperative with me, although he or she must give me due care, answer any and all questions I have, and respond to requests in a timely manner. The problem for most people is that that they don’t know which questions to ask and they don’t know what requests are required.
Anyway, when I let a listing agent know that I am facilitating a 1031 exchange for all cash, they put me to the front of the line. They know that I have an urgency and intend to buy something quickly. They also know that I don’t have to worry about financing. I still get a positive, yet less excited, response for a non-exchange straight cash purchase.
I purchased a single-family detached home for all cash a little over a year ago that wasn’t a tax-free exchange and I called up the listing agent directly who decided to keep both ends of the commission in a dual agency. I also got a screaming deal. I paid $248,000 cash and comps in the community are now about $350,000. The listing agent was incentivized to go with my offer as his office received both sides of the commission without having to do any extra work. I just don’t get too chummy with the agents, because they want to be my buyer agent in the future. I’m especially vague while working with them and do not agree to anything like that.
My piece of advice to you. If you feel the desire to use an attorney in lieu of using a buyer agent, I would just go with using a buyer agent. Unless you live in a place like downstate New York, where buyer and seller are both represented by their own attorneys at closing as a matter of normal course, real estate agents and their brokers perform all the perfunctory tasks surrounding routine real estate transactions. I was a realtor in two states and one in Virginia up until 2018, so I am familiar with real estate law. I’m familiar with contracts and purchase sale agreements, as well as hoa’s, etc. If you are familiar with real estate yourself, I would try to contact the listing agent directly and either ask for dual agency or just purchase it as a customer and see if you can lower your offer price by 2%. I personally find buyer agents to be an anchor and just someone who gets in the way.
If you truly know what you want and you are willing to independently search listings and come up with something that is interesting, I would not encumber myself with a buyer agent, but would contact the listing agent directly and seek a dual agency. If you are more aggressive, you can just represent yourself as a customer and real estate agents should know that customers can represent themselves. I still come across listing agents who do not understand this. If you are represented, you’re a client. If not, you’re just a customer who must receive due care.
With the advent of Zillow and other websites like realtor.com, there’s no need to be represented by a buyer agent anymore. I often find them to be millstones, so I would not handcuff yourself with a contractual buyer agency. I like to remain as free to roam as possible.
In fact, with the advent of online property search engines like Zillow, the importance of the real estate agent has diminished greatly, and many buyers and sellers openly Wonder why agents should get paid at such a high percentage commission.
Given the intense competition in the real estate markets over the past five or so years, I find very few bargains out there and even online auction sites that sell properties for all cash like Hubzu are not great places anymore. When I was buying properties 10 to 12 years ago, I purchased several properties via online auctions for cash. I was often the only bona fide bidder as all the other ones were just placing low ball offers. That’s a now a thing of the past.
There is plenty to work with on Zillow and realtor.com. At this point in my existence, I’m less inclined to buy a junker property and put a lot of energy and time fixing it up. But you might be young and more aggressive. There are listings out there.
There is one big caveat to this. In places like Prince George’s County Maryland, where there are a lot of stupid homeowners who don’t understand contract law nor market trends, home flippers will negotiate arm’s length private transactions after scouring cold call lists or obituaries and purchase properties for pennies on the dollar. I certainly never went this route, because I could never live with myself knowing I ripped somebody off. Up until about 4 years ago, every property I purchased was a bank foreclosure. As you can see, the market has definitely changed.
There is enough to work with through legitimate listing avenues and with any knowledge of demographics and trends, there’s always money to be made picking the right places. For instance, shortly after covid I determined that conservative money was hell bent on investing outside the blue areas like Fairfax County Virginia. They went out to the area that I had been looking at, where prices have subsequently gone up by at least 50% over the past 4 years and continue to rise. This is not a fad as rents in these otherwise quieter areas have escalated tremendously.
I was so repulsed by what Fairfax County had become. The local public library would post banners all over the library proclaiming “Love is Love is Love” with large rainbow flags and banners. Fairfax County bows down and worships the shvartze like in Maryland and celebrates the shvartze history month. Fairfax County schools now observes Ramadan with a holiday.
The whole world really fell apart after covid and virtually all the blue areas have seen real estate prices struggle relative to the red areas. This trend continues today.