A reader asks about Ed Dowd, darling of the alt-financial media
I cannot believe how expensive it has gotten. Our food bill keeps climbing, and I just paid over $1,000 to have a few things done on my car. They just raised our property taxes again, and added a new “tax” for garbage collection. It seems like it’s their game plan to make affording a home unaffordable. Which by the way…does anyone know if they’re handing foreigners free homes out? It took us years of labor to afford a house and these foreigners have been moving into our neighborhood and driving cars and I’m wondering where they’re getting the money for a house and car? I watched a video where a former border patrol agent said that grandmother migrants who never worked a day in their life come in, are given a SS card, and are paid more money every month than he now gets after paying into SS his entire life.
Anyway – I wanted to see what you think of Ed Dowd? He’s advising people to invest in government bonds. What are your thoughts on this Stone?
Reader
Other than holding Treasury bills, which largely comprise government money market funds, I would stay away from all government debt.
Why?
First, the central banks are effectively subsidizing bond yields and lenders to the nation states (those who buy and hold longer dated treasury debt) are paying the difference between the subsidized yields and the free market yields. This is allowing the governments to continue spending for the Great Reset, and I have concluded that bond yields across the board are still too low. For instance, without Federal Reserve intervention, the 10-year Treasury would probably be about 6-7%.
Second, I’m still of the conviction that short-term interest rates such as the FED funds rate are closer to neutral policy than most believe. I don’t see how the Federal Reserve can lower interest rates in any profound way without igniting further upswings in asset and house prices as well as igniting the cost of living inflation.
Third, one of the reasons why we’re having persistent inflation is because of the rising sickness and death rates. The microeconomic distortions rippling through the economy have been tremendous and will persist. These behavioral microeconomic phenomena are translating into structural macroeconomic distortions. I also suspect that the established order is disappointed with their mRNA bio-weapon injection campaign, since there are still too many people alive. Perhaps it needs to drag on until the end of the decade.
Fourth, supply chain disruptions have persisted since covid and have continued with the decoupling from the West’s distancing from Russia and China.
Fifth, just look at the Bloomberg article I posted regarding the 34 trillion dollars it will cost as a base case to build the green economy. That will be facilitated through government debt generation and price inflation, which is just an indirect tax to the citizenry. The central banks will do whatever is needed in order to make that a reality. Primarily, the central banks will heavily subsidize bond yields via monetary policy.
If you think inflation is bad now, it’s not going to get any better. The last place I would recommend people investing, other than for speculation, would be in longer dated Treasury debt. I only stick to short-term government paper, which is why I have been recommending investors park cash in US Treasury money market funds. The fund I have at Schwab is yielding 5.2% and that’s where I park my cash holdings. I had been recommending this now for at least a year, because I knew that there was no way the Federal Reserve could begin lowering rates as everyone assumed.
It seems now the FED may not lower rates at all this year, and that’s because they can’t. There are too many Great Reset objectives to be fulfilled and the fiscal deficit spending cannot stop now. If the Fed lowered overnight rates in any meaningful way, they would ignite an inflation storm. If you think house prices are expensive now, just imagine what they would be if the federal funds rate dropped 200 basis points.
I am warning the reader that the cost of living is going to become so crushingly unbearable over the next several years. It will grind most people down to powder.
As for Ed dowd, he has been incorrect on a lot of his investment theses, and while I’m not going to look at the video all the way to its conclusion, if he’s recommending longer dated government paper I will just chalk it up to another misguided recommendation by Ed Dowd.
The alt-finance media is impressed with Dowd’s ostensible resume as he tries to impress the listener with how intelligent he is. That is the logic fallacy of appealing to authority. The alt finance media are so easily conned.
From my perspective, Dowd continues to swing and miss on his recommendations. I remember his call on owning death related stocks and shorting insurance stocks. I recall his bearish recommendation on residential housing and the economy in general. I recall his misguided thoughts on the direction of the stock market a few years ago, too. Now he’s out jumping the shark, exclaiming we’re in for a huge economic shock. Of course, this appeals to the Cassandras and their steadfast confirmation biases.
Ed Dowd does not impress me anymore. He did a few years ago, since I previously never heard of him, but his subsequent track record is kind of poor. He’s a milder version of Martin Armstrong and his stupid Socrates computer.
I think Dowd spends too much time staring at the digits on the screen, waiting for confirmation of his presuppositions, and less time understanding what we know. He and his supposed team of physicists don’t understand the conspiracy. This conspiracy includes the co-opting of all the major insurance companies, as well as the organs of government that manipulate publicly available data. He’s utterly unable to comprehend the Jew synagogue banking cartel Jesus warned us about. Yes, this is the cartel that’s running it all and is overwhelming our borders with non-congruent people who will continue draining government coffers.
I don’t know of anyone else in the alternative finance media who has been more correct over the longer term than I have been. I also know why I don’t get any traction. It’s because I’m too depressing and politically irreverent.
If you walked by me on the street, you’d probably call me a stupid slob with messy hair. I prefer to be left alone and just speak out via this blog and the others I used over the past 12 years. Don’t bother calling me for interviews, although I’m much more correct than any of the other guests.
I warn the reader to steer clear of the cult of personality. It’s easy to do, because people are inherently lazy. Don’t fall into the logic fallacy trap of appealing to authority. Stick to the track records, because those will always speak for themselves.
If you are focusing in on syringe makers and profiting from covid 2.0, hopefully this company (STSS) is on the right side of history, as here is more evidence in the news today that the diabolical SOS agenda of death (via injection) and hunger (via destruction and control of food supply) is advancing.
https://nemosnewsnetwork.com/moderna-shares-rise-on-report-us-govt-preparing-funding-for-mrna-bird-flu-vax/
https://nemosnewsnetwork.com/millions-of-chickens-killed-in-5-alarm-fire-at-farina-farms-inc-in-illinois-one-of-nations-largest-free-range-egg-facilities-video/
I think the bird flu will be Covid 2. They will whip it up and the masses will line up like fearful sheep to get the “safe and effective “ bird flu vaccine that will protect against nothing. We will be pressured by our friends, family, employers and government to take these bird flu vaccines or we will face isolation and will not be able to buy groceries.
There will be another sequel. There is a reason why Hollywood made sequels to horror movies like Friday the 13th and Nightmare on Elm Street. I recall at least six sequels to Friday the 13th. Most people are dumb enough to go for the same show multiple times but slightly different twist.
There probably will be a slightly different twist to the bird flu scare. Those twists might be stricter vaccine mandates such as a digital id to show you are vaccinated otherwise no job and no grocery shopping. This flu may be shown to have a higher mortality rate as well as being more painful and prolonged.
I see the bird flu as another rerun to the Covid Scare. If 70% are dumb enough to get a killer vaccine for a disease that has a 100th of a percent mortality rate then imagine the reaction for a 1% mortality rate or a 5% mortality rate.
Horror movie sequels squeeze money out of the dumb masses. Disease scare sequels and the associated vaccine “protection “ are designed to squeeze the life out of the dummies who get the vaccines.
Those who turn to Jesus Christ and have a daily prayer routine with God will see through this racket and avoid being one of the fearful sheep.
And usually the sequels don’t do as well as the original. The masses won’t accept another pandemic in our lifetimes.
Agreed. Old tricks are their best tricks the past may be a guild to their next scheme.
As a sequel to my earlier comment:
The SOS U.S. Gov’t is ramping up production of the bird flu mRNA vaccines, to be “tested” on calves, then to target animal farmers (our food supply) with the vaccines, then ramp up production of them for the general population
https://legalinsurrection.com/2024/06/u-s-to-make-millions-of-bird-flu-vaccine-doses-this-summer/
Meanwhile, you have the Jesuit fraud Fauci STILL blaming the unvaxed for hundreds of thousands of covid deaths, but admitting the rest of the covid protocols (that effectively destroyed this nation economically) were not based on any science.
https://legalinsurrection.com/2024/06/fauci-no-science-behind-covid-masking-or-social-distancing-blames-unvaccinated-for-hundreds-of-thousands-of-deaths/
Looks interesting seems like it had a few run ups already looks like only 5.89% of the shares are profited based on yesterday’s close with the average cost of .61 will be interesting if it gets some traction
Trump is paying the price for whoring himself out to the liberals in the 80’s.
The BOJ has regularly put out their balance sheet update on the second monday of every month. We still haven’t seen an update for April, I have never seen it go this late.
So correct. I think an investor of bonds more than six months out is throwing their money down the rat hole. Why lock up your money for 10 years only to get less than locking it up in a treasury bill for a month? The guys at CNBC are lying to the audience that interest rates are coming down when even the Fed is saying not so fast.
Here is another quick read about general economic swings or booms. Do presidents matter? https://www.jvmlending.com/blog/do-presidents-matter-when-it-comes-to-the-economy/
What the writer doesn’t address is what we talk about on this blog. I believe that every boom or major event is a set up for the future of wealth consolidation by the fewer and fewer large corps. I see it in my line of work and my vintage car hobby in real time. Holley, a well known aftermarket maker of carburetors going back decades now owns several once large independent aftermarket companies. Edelbrock, Comp Cams, and others are under one special low interest rate corporate only loan umbrella? While the article talks about a tech boom of actual products, it seems in the last 10 years the real “product” has been cheap loans (for the select few) to buy up the world?
My ball bearing supplier (for my business) is now owned by an investment group. I had a conversation with my long time sales associate and brought up a point that may be realistic. He explained to me how this buy out works is the bearing supplier is paying back the loan used to buy out the former private owner plus all the operating expenses (wages, etc). I added, that the loan rate for the investment group may very well be a much lower rate than what your store is being charged per say. Sales targets are likely very closely watched so that the number one objective of servicing that loan continues. Correct me if I’m wrong but sounds plausible to me.
Here is another reason why inflation will persist. Productivity goes down when the number of sick and dying people increase because sick people just don’t work or if they do work they are only half productive. However, these same sick people still demand services and goods while they are still alive. Prices go up when demand holds up while productivity drops. As long as there are increasing sick people the price level will continue to increase. In addition, government deficit spending supported by Fed money printing to purchase the debt adds fuel to the inflation fire.
I think the economy will eventually collapse when these sick people die off because demand will suddenly drop off. These vaccines are causing a slow and painful death to those foolish people who took the shots.
I just bought a pair of Hoka’s for the first time within the last month. Recommended by my new foot doctor, they were more than I have ever paid for sneakers – $175 for runners/walkers, since I walk daily. Based on my experience, they are truly superior to Nike, Reebok, New Balance or any of the others like that, due to Hoka’s special features including very wide supportive hyper-cushioned soles and reduced stress on toe joints by propelling feet forward due to a very slight rocking motion they are engineered to create. Looking around specifically at people’s shoes since my recent need to see a foot doctor, I am noticing more people wearing Hoka’s, and a friend I talked to a few days ago with a pair just like mine said she will wear no others. That will probably be true for me as well – worth the price – because the foot surgery I now need for bunion-like bone spurs (caused in part by the onset of arthritis) is going to be way more expensive, due in part to wearing lesser (but still name brand) sneakers all these years to take daily walks. Seeing this news that DECK ( the makers of Hoka) crushed expectations does not surprise me at all.
Sorry to hear about your arthritis, Stone!. And yes, my early stage arthritis also began within the last couple of years! It was not lost on me, as I wrote about Hoka sneakers in what sounded like an advertisement for expensive shoes (as I am normally thrifty), that arthritis is an auto-immune disorder. The immune system is the main function that the bioweapons have affected (with those that succumbed to the pressure and took them, and those that were shedded on, i.e., pretty much all of us). It’s going to be imperative that we support our immune systems as much as possible. Although that is no easy task in an increasingly toxic world…BTW, I understand tumeric is good for inflammation, and was going to try that in a capsule form, as it seems harmless enough. Have you tried that?
Stone, I am sorry to hear about your recent arthritis. I hope you keep it under control and it goes into remission. I had sarcoid disease which required taking a steroid with serious side effects. I blame the sarcoid disease on the flu shots I used to take as I was diagnosed with it 8 years ago while I was doing the flu shots. I noticed since I took curcumin my sarcoid disease went away. Since I have given up the flu shots, I have less and milder colds and less allergies.
I see confirmation that shedding must be real. That said we need to defend our bodies with supplements and healthy habits. We are still better off than those fools who took the covid vaccines.
Some interesting points in this article that seem to resonate with Mr. Stone
https://www.jvmlending.com/blog/the-government-does-not-print-money/?utm_campaign=Monthly%20Newsletter&utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-_bAoOePvcfv6pFrT6w5pixGJaMbj3nxGQi6pwb4ZF5ZEjOMM6k1BS5XOXFDtt00MsSt8ILSa2SKXiHAOB3fDGak5xsYw&_hsmi=308533030&utm_content=the-government-does-not-print-money&utm_source=hs
I have heard that there was a nationwide banking system collapse in Cuba. This is a communist country by the way. That said, their bank collapse was preplanned to usher in a central bank digital currency and to gauge the reaction of the people. The collapse could not have occurred due to bad investments as their banks should all be government owned. Check out this article:
https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/news-selections/world-news/flash-urgent-cuban-banking-system-has-collapsed
This could be coming to a theater near you. Keep some cash, gold, silver, guns, and ammo. Stock up on groceries.
Thoughts on SGRP?
I think the Covid Vaxxes are quietly working as expected. They have to make the resulting deaths slow and steady so nobody notices the connection between the vaccines and debilitating health issues. In addition, I think there are more deaths than are being publicly discussed and they are attributing them to other causes.
Since the covid thing, I noticed that customer service has gotten slower, sloppier, and dumber. It seems people are getting dumber and foggier.
Yes! Our 36 year old neighbor just died in her sleep. It was heart-wrenching. Accidents are up too – several family members have been hit.
And…they’re chemtrailing us again heavily.
Thanks for the analysis Stone – I didn’t know what to think of Dowd but I think he worked for Blackrock.
I am truly sorry to hear about the failing health of your wife and friends. For me, friends are quite sick and extended family members dead from the bioweapon. Everyone I know has friends and/or family who have either died or gotten very ill from these “vaccines.” My husband now has very serious health issues from shedding, and my adult daughter is a ticking time bomb because, despite my begging, she took the poisons (and smirked).
I read the Hunger Games series a while back. It seems now that this dystopian fiction was predictive programming. It’s also weird how many people can’t connect the dots, which is the most dystopian part of all this.
I wanted to ask you about a point that Dowd made and you reiterated about money markets. In thinking about this, I need a bit of a primer on money markets, as I originally thought they were pretty much all the same. What are your thoughts on having your money in the Vanguard money market fund. Is it “safe” there? I figured Vanguard is too big to fail…. I got the sense from Dowd and you that specifically a government securities money market fund is superior. Thoughts?